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Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Bonnet

    (Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED))

  • Josselin Thuilliez

    (Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS))

  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS))

Abstract

Background: Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956–1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969–1970). Objective: This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. Methods: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find out whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969 and decreased from 1970 onward. Conclusions: The Hong Kong flu is identified as the event of a structural break. After the break, geographical differences are less explained by regional characteristics such as income, density, or aging ratio. The Hong Kong flu was found to be associated with a major change in influenza mortality in France. Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemic. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions. Contribution: We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas). Change in health practices and policies induced a decline in mortality that started in 1970, just after the pandemics. The health benefits are notably important for senior citizens and for the poorest regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Bonnet & Josselin Thuilliez & Hippolyte d'Albis, 2022. "Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(19), pages 545-576.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:47:y:2022:i:19
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2022.47.19
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Max Brüning & Josselin Thuilliez, 2019. "Mortality and Macroeconomic Conditions: What Can We Learn From France?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(5), pages 1747-1764, October.
    2. Oscar Jorda & Sanjay R. Singh & Alan M. Taylor, 2022. "Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 166-175, March.
    3. Florian Bonnet & Hippolyte d'Albis, 2020. "Spatial Inequality in Mortality in France over the Past Two Centuries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 145-168, March.
    4. Anne Morrison Piehl & Suzanne J. Cooper & Anthony A. Braga & David M. Kennedy, 2003. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Evaluation of Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 550-558, August.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    6. Christopher J. Ruhm, 2000. "Are Recessions Good for Your Health?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 617-650.
    7. Florian Bonnet, 2020. "Computations of French lifetables by department, 1901–2014," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(26), pages 741-762.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    pandemic; French departments; vaccinations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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