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Capturing trends in Canadian divorce in an era without vital statistics

Author

Listed:
  • Rachel Margolis

    (University of Western Ontario)

  • Youjin Choi

    (University of Western Ontario)

  • Feng Hou

    (Statistics Canada)

  • Michael Haan

    (Western University)

Abstract

Background: Statistics Canada ceased publishing vital statistics on marriage and divorce in 2008, leaving a knowledge gap in these important demographic indicators. Objective: This paper makes the methodological contribution of examining how best to operationalize divorce with tax data, and the substantive contribution of presenting recent trends in divorce in Canada. Methods: We examine trends in divorce using both vital statistics and administrative tax data and compare them during the period for which they are available (through 2008). Then, using administrative tax data, we update trends in divorce through 2016. We examine overall, age-specific, and age-standardized trends in divorce. Results: We document “gray divorce” from the 1990s through 2008 and then flat divorce rates for older adults and a continued decline in divorce for younger adults through 2016. Conclusions: Tax data show a recent decline in divorce trends in Canada. However, there are important limitations to estimating divorce with tax data. We discuss data gaps and make suggestions for more accurate measures of union dissolution. Contribution: Divorce is important for demographers to measure well, and this paper carefully examines recent trends and critically evaluates administrative data’s ability to fill the void left by the termination of vital statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachel Margolis & Youjin Choi & Feng Hou & Michael Haan, 2019. "Capturing trends in Canadian divorce in an era without vital statistics," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(52), pages 1453-1478.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:41:y:2019:i:52
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sheela Kennedy & Steven Ruggles, 2014. "Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(2), pages 587-598, April.
    2. Corak, Miles, 2001. "Death and Divorce: The Long-Term Consequences of Parental Loss on Adolescents," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(3), pages 682-715, July.
    3. Céline Le Bourdais & Sung-Hee Jeon & Shelley Clark & Évelyne Lapierre-Adamcyk, 2016. "Impact of conjugal separation on women’s income in Canada: Does the type of union matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(50), pages 1489-1522.
    4. Susan L. Brown & I-Fen Lin, 2012. "The Gray Divorce Revolution: Rising Divorce Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults, 1990-2010," The Journals of Gerontology: Series B, The Gerontological Society of America, vol. 67(6), pages 731-741.
    5. Sébastien LaRochelle-Côté & John Myles & Garnett Picot, 2012. "Income Replacement Rates among Canadian Seniors: The Effect of Widowhood and Divorce," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 38(4), pages 471-495, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Chih-lan Winnie & Denier, Nicole & St-Denis, Xavier & Waite, Sean, 2024. "Studying Individuals in Same-Sex Couples using Longitudinal Administrative Data from Canadian Tax Records: Opportunities and Challenges," SocArXiv j9skr, Center for Open Science.
    2. Benoît Laplante, 2024. "Policy and Fertility, a Case Study of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(3), pages 1-34, June.
    3. Frank T Denton & Byron G Spencer & Terry A Yip, 2020. "Changes and Stability in Marital Status: Evidence from Canadian Income Tax Returns," Department of Economics Working Papers 2020-07, McMaster University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    divorce trends; vital statistics; administrative data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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