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Empirical Assessments of Social Networks, Fertility and Family Planning Programs

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Jere Behrman

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Susan Watkins

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Empirical studies of the diffusion of modern methods of family planning have increasing incorporated social interaction within nonlinear models such as logits. But they have not considered the full implications of these nonlinear specifications. This paper considers the implications of using nonlinear models in empirical analyses of the impact of family programs, modulated by social interaction, on reproductive behavior. Three implications of nonlinear models, in comparison with linear models, are developed. (1) With nonlinear models, there may be both low and high contraceptive-use equilibria (i.e., the ultimate level of use of modern family planning that a population can be expected to reach after the effects of a sustained change in a family planning program have worked through the population) rather than just one equilibrium as in linear models. If there are multiple equilibria, then one striking and important result is that a transitory large program effort may move a community from sustained low- to high-level contraceptive use. (2) With nonlinear models the extent to which a social interaction multiplies program efforts depends on whether the community is at a low or high level of contraceptive use rather than being independent of the level of contraceptive use as in linear models. (3) With nonlinear models, intensified social interaction can retard or enhance the diffusion of family planning, in contrast to only enhancing diffusion as within linear models. To clarify these implications, for comparison a simple and more transparent linear model is also discussed. Illustrative estimates are presented of simple linear and nonlinear models for rural Kenya that demonstrate that some of these effects may be considerable.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere Behrman & Susan Watkins, 2000. "Empirical Assessments of Social Networks, Fertility and Family Planning Programs," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7).
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:3:y:2000:i:7
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2000.3.7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, 1994. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, Third Edition, pages 323-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere R. Behrman & Susan Cotts Watkins, 1999. "The structure of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from S. Nyanza District, Kenya," MPIDR Working Papers WP-1999-005, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere Behrman & Susan Watkins, 2001. "The density of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from south nyanza district, kenya," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 43-58, February.
    4. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    5. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    6. Mary Arends-Kuenning, 2001. "How do family planning workers’ visits affect women’s contraceptive behavior in bangladesh?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(4), pages 481-496, November.
    7. Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2000. "Fertility decline as a coordination problem," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 231-263, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. S Anukriti & Catalina Herrera‐Almanza & Praveen K. Pathak & Mahesh Karra, 2020. "Curse of the Mummy‐ji: The Influence of Mothers‐in‐Law on Women in India†," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(5), pages 1328-1351, October.
    2. Alexander A. Weinreb & Patrick Gerland & Peter Fleming, 2008. "Hotspots and Coldspots: Household and village-level variation in orphanhood prevalence in rural Malawi," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(32), pages 1217-1248.
    3. David K. Guilkey & Veronica Escamilla & Lisa M. Calhoun & Ilene S. Speizer, 2020. "The Examination of Diffusion Effects on Modern Contraceptive Use in Nigeria," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(3), pages 873-898, June.
    4. Alison Andrew & Orazio Attanasio & Britta Augsburg & Jere Behrman & Monimalika Day & Pamela Jervis & Costas Meghir & Angus Phimister, 2020. "Mothers’ Social Networks and Socioeconomic Gradients of Isolation," NBER Working Papers 28049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rondinelli, Concetta & Aassve, Arnstein & C. Billari, Francesco, 2006. "Socio-economic differences in postponement and recuperation of fertility in Italy: results from a multi-spell random effect model," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-46, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere Behrman & Susan Watkins, 2001. "The density of social networks and fertility decisions: evidence from south nyanza district, kenya," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 43-58, February.
    7. Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler & Susan Watkins, 2002. "Social networks and changes in contraceptive use over time: Evidence from a longitudinal study in rural Kenya," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(4), pages 713-738, November.
    8. Susan Watkins & Ina Warriner, 2003. "How do we know we need to control for selectivity?," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 1(4), pages 109-142.
    9. Hans-Peter Kohler & Jere Behrman & Susan Watkins, 2007. "Social networks and HIV/AIDS risk perceptions," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(1), pages 1-33, February.
    10. Paul Mathews & Rebecca Sear, 2013. "Does the kin orientation of a British woman’s social network influence her entry into motherhood?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(11), pages 313-340.
    11. Chimbiri, Agnes M., 2007. "The condom is an 'intruder' in marriage: Evidence from rural Malawi," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1102-1115, March.
    12. Kohler, Hans-Peter, 2000. "Fertility decline as a coordination problem," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 231-263, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; family planning programs; social interactions; nonlinear models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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