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Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to More Than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yi Zeng

    (Duke University)

  • Linda George

    (Duke University)

Abstract

Based on censuses micro data files, population and family households projections, this paper analyses extremely rapid population aging, family dynamics and living arrangements of the elderly in China. Both our and the U.N.’s most recent projections confirm very rapid increase in proportion of elderly, huge numbers of elderly persons, an extraordinarily rapid increase of the oldest old after 2020, and more serious aging problems in rural than urban areas. Comparative data analysis on family dynamics and living arrangements of the elderly, males vs. females, younger elders vs. oldest old, rural vs. urban, and 1982 vs. 1990 are presented. According to an application to the multidimensional family household projection model, the family households structure and living arrangements of the Chinese elderly would change dramatically during the first half of the 21th century. In addition to demographic data analysis, we also discuss socio-economic and cultural contexts to explain the issues of rapid aging and changes in family structure and living arrangements of the elderly in China. Drawing upon our empirical findings, we presented policy recommendations on strengthening family support system, establishing an old age insurance program in rural areas, favourable policy for elderly women in consideration of their disadvantaged status, and smoothly transiting to a two-child plus spacing policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi Zeng & Linda George, 2000. "Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to More Than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(5).
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:2:y:2000:i:5
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2000.2.5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liang, Jersey & Jow-Ching Tu, Edward & Chen, Xiangming, 1986. "Population aging in the People's Republic of China," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1353-1362, January.
    2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1986_41n3_0609 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zeng Yi & James Vaupel & Wang Zhenglian, 1997. "A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households - with an illustrative numerical application," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 187-216.
    4. Freedman, V.A., 1996. "Family Structure and the Risk of Nursing Home Admission," Papers 96-10, RAND - Reprint Series.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qiulin Chen & Karen Eggleston & Ling Li, 2012. "Demographic change, intergenerational transfers, and the challenges for social protection systems in the People’s Republic of China," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 6, pages 161-202, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Puthiery Va & Wan-Shui Yang & Sarah Nechuta & Wong-Ho Chow & Hui Cai & Gong Yang & Shan Gao & Yu-Tang Gao & Wei Zheng & Xiao-Ou Shu & Yong-Bing Xiang, 2011. "Marital Status and Mortality among Middle Age and Elderly Men and Women in Urban Shanghai," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(11), pages 1-10, November.
    3. Ling Li & Qiulin Chen & Yu Jiang, 2011. "The changing patterns of China's public services," Chapters, in: Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Population Aging and the Generational Economy, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Meliyanni Johar & Shiko Maruyama, 2011. "Intergenerational cohabitation in modern Indonesia: filial support and dependence," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(S1), pages 87-104, September.
    5. Maria Porter, 2017. "Spousal Bargaining Over Care for Elderly Parents in China: Imbalances in Sex Ratios Influence the Allocation of Support," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 514-529, April.
    6. Danan Gu & Yi Zeng, 2004. "Sociodemographic Effects on the Onset and Recovery of ADL Disability among Chinese Oldest-old," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(1), pages 1-42.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging; China; living arrangements; family dynamics; elderly;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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