IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v28y2013i32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Components and possible determinants of decrease in Russian mortality in 2004-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Shkolnikov

    (Max-Planck-Institut für Demografische Forschung)

  • Martin McKee

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

  • Evgeny M. Andreev

    (New Economic School)

  • David A. Leon

    (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine)

Abstract

Background: After a long decline, life expectancy in Russia substantially increased in 2004-2010; this is the longest period of health improvement that has been observed in the country since 1965. This study is the first analysis of this positive trend. Objective: We seek to determine the causes and age groups that account for the additional years of life gained in 2004-10 and the remaining gap between Russia and Western countries, to assess to what extent these recent trends represent a new development relative to previous mortality fluctuations, and to identify possible explanations for the improvement. Methods: We present an analysis of trends in life expectancy, and in age- and cause-specific mortality in Russia and selected countries in Eastern and Western Europe. We use decomposition techniques to examine the life expectancy rise in 2004-2010 and the Russia-UK life expectancy gap in 2010. Results: Like the previous mortality fluctuations that have occurred in Russia since the mid-1980s, the increase in life expectancy was driven by deaths at ages 15 to 60 from alcohol-related causes. Uniquely in the recent period, there were also improvements at older ages, especially in cerebrovascular disease mortality among women. In addition, there were reductions in deaths from avoidable causes, such as from tuberculosis and diabetes. The life expectancy gap between Russia and Western countries remains large, and is mostly attributable to deaths from cardiovascular disease, alcohol-related conditions, and violence. Conclusions: The decrease in alcohol-related mortality may be attributable to measures taken in 2006 to control the production and sale of ethanol. The lower number of cerebrovascular-related deaths may reflect advancements in blood pressure control. The reduction in the number of deaths from tuberculosis and diabetes may be associated with a general improvement in health care. Although the decline in mortality since 2004 has been substantial, the question of whether it can be sustained remains open.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Shkolnikov & Martin McKee & Evgeny M. Andreev & David A. Leon, 2013. "Components and possible determinants of decrease in Russian mortality in 2004-2010," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(32), pages 917-950.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:28:y:2013:i:32
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol28/32/28-32.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.32?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir Shkolnikov & Alexander Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, healthy life expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total fertility rat," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 7(14), pages 499-522.
    2. France Meslé, 2004. "Mortality in Central and Eastern Europe," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(3), pages 45-70.
    3. Jacques Vallin & France Meslé, 2004. "Convergences and divergences in mortality," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(2), pages 11-44.
    4. Evgeny M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total ," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Pridemore, William Alex, 2003. "Measuring homicide in Russia: a comparison of estimates from the crime and vital statistics reporting systems," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1343-1354, October.
    6. Natalia Gavrilova & Victoria Semyonova & Elena Dubrovina & Galina Evdokushkina & Alla Ivanova & Leonid Gavrilov, 2008. "Russian Mortality Crisis and the Quality of Vital Statistics," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 27(5), pages 551-574, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. France Meslé & Jacques Vallin, 2017. "The End of East–West Divergence in European Life Expectancies? An Introduction to the Special Issue," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 615-627, December.
    2. Lyytikäinen, Laura & Kemppainen, Teemu, 2016. "Regional inequalities in self-rated health in Russia: What is the role of social and economic capital?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 92-99.
    3. Quirmbach, Diana & Gerry, Christopher J., 2016. "Gender, education and Russia’s tobacco epidemic: A life-course approach," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 54-66.
    4. Todd, Megan A. & Shkolnikov, Vladimir M. & Goldman, Noreen, 2016. "Why are well-educated Muscovites more likely to survive? Understanding the biological pathways," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 138-147.
    5. Pavel Grigoriev & France Meslé & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Agnieszka Fihel & Marketa Pechholdova & Jacques Vallin, 2014. "The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 107-129, March.
    6. Khvan, Margarita & Smorodenkova, Elizaveta & Yakovlev, Evgeny, 2020. "Economic Crises and Mortality Among the Elderly: Evidence from Two Russian Crises," IZA Discussion Papers 13540, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2021. "Mortality in Russia Since the Fall of the Soviet Union," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(4), pages 557-576, December.
    8. Tatiana V. Kossova & Elena V. Kossova & Maria A. Sheluntcova, 2014. "Investigating The Volume And Structure Of Alcohol Consumption And Their Impact On Life Expectancy In Russian Regions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 82/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Yuka S. Minagawa, 2018. "Changing Life Expectancy and Health Expectancy Among Russian Adults: Results from the Past 20 Years," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(5), pages 851-869, October.
    10. Katherine Keenan & Lyudmila Saburova & Natalia Bobrova & Diana Elbourne & Sarah Ashwin & David A Leon, 2015. "Social Factors Influencing Russian Male Alcohol Use over the Life Course: A Qualitative Study Investigating Age Based Social Norms, Masculinity, and Workplace Context," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-15, November.
    11. Irina Denisova & Polina Kuznetsova, 2014. "The effects of tobacco taxes on health : an analysis of the effects by income quintile and gender in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine," Health, Nutrition and Population (HNP) Discussion Paper Series 92765, The World Bank.
    12. Evgeny Yakovlev, 2016. "Demand for Alcohol Consumption and Implication for Mortality: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0221, New Economic School (NES).
    13. Sergey Timonin & Inna Danilova & Evgeny Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2017. "Recent Mortality Trend Reversal in Russia: Are Regions Following the Same Tempo?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 733-763, December.
    14. José M. Aburto & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2017. "Lifespan dispersion in times of life expectancy fluctuation: the case of Central and Eastern Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2017-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Kontsevaya, Anna & Sabgaida, Tamara & Ivanova, Alla & Leon, David A. & McKee, Martin, 2017. "How has the management of acute coronary syndrome changed in the Russian Federation during the last 10 years?," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(12), pages 1274-1279.
    16. Yevgeniy Goryakin & Bayard Roberts & Martin McKee, 2015. "Price elasticities of alcohol demand: evidence from Russia," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 16(2), pages 185-199, March.
    17. Audrey Ugarte & Onofre Alves Simões, 2020. "Breaking Life Expectancy into Small Pieces," Working Papers REM 2020/0154, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    18. Kossova, Tatiana V. (Коссова, Татьяна В.) & Kossova, Elena V. (Коссова, Елена) & Sheluntsova, Maria A. (Шелунцова, Мария), 2017. "Estimating the Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Mortality and Life Expectancy in Russian Regions [Влияние Потребления Алкоголя На Смертность И Ожидаемую Продолжительность Жизни В Регионах России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 58-83, February.
    19. Joel E. Cohen & Roland Rau & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2018. "Gompertz, Makeham, and Siler models explain Taylor's law in human mortality data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 38(29), pages 773-842.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agnieszka Fihel & Marketa Pechholdová, 2017. "Between ‘Pioneers’ of the Cardiovascular Revolution and Its ‘Late Followers’: Mortality Changes in the Czech Republic and Poland Since 1968," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 651-678, December.
    2. Sergey Timonin & Inna Danilova & Evgeny Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, 2017. "Recent Mortality Trend Reversal in Russia: Are Regions Following the Same Tempo?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 733-763, December.
    3. Vladimir Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Zhen Zhang & James Oeppen & James Vaupel, 2011. "Losses of Expected Lifetime in the United States and Other Developed Countries: Methods and Empirical Analyses," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 211-239, February.
    4. Alyson van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Lifespan Variation by Occupational Class: Compression or Stagnation Over Time?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 73-95, February.
    5. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny M. Andreev & Zhen Zhang & James E. Oeppen & James W. Vaupel, 2009. "Losses of expected lifetime in the US and other developed countries: methods and empirical analyses," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-042, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Pavel Grigoriev & France Meslé & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny Andreev & Agnieszka Fihel & Marketa Pechholdova & Jacques Vallin, 2014. "The Recent Mortality Decline in Russia: Beginning of the Cardiovascular Revolution?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 40(1), pages 107-129, March.
    7. Domantas Jasilionis & France Meslé & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Jacques Vallin, 2011. "Recent Life Expectancy Divergence in Baltic Countries," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 403-431, November.
    8. Marina Vergeles, 2021. "Evolution Of Sex Gap In Life Expectancy Across High-Income Countries: Universal Patterns And Country-Specific Attributes," HSE Working papers WP BRP 98/SOC/2021, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Faragó, Miklós, 2011. "Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója [Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of differences between them," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 970-993.
    10. Robert Stelter & David de la Croix & Mikko Myrskylä, 2020. "Leaders And Laggards In Life Expectancy Among European Scholars From The Sixteenth To The Early Twentieth Century," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2020024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    11. Virginia Zarulli & James W. Vaupel & Rune Lindahl-Jacobsen, 2020. "Onset of the old-age gender gap in survival," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(25), pages 727-740.
    12. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Evgeny M. Andreev & Dmitri A. Jdanov & Domantas Jasilionis & Tapani Valkonen, 2009. "To what extent do rising mortality inequalities by education and marital status attenuate the general mortality decline? The case of Finland in 1971-2030," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-018, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Jonathan Fox & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Urban fertility responses to local government programs: Evidence from the 1923-1932 U.S," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(16), pages 487-532.
    14. Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram & Soneji, Samir, 2011. "A unifying framework for assessing changes in life expectancy associated with changes in mortality: The case of violent deaths," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 38-48.
    15. A. Remund & S. Cullati & S. Sieber & C. Burton-Jeangros & M. Oris, 2019. "Longer and healthier lives for all? Successes and failures of a universal consumer-driven healthcare system, Switzerland, 1990–2014," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 64(8), pages 1173-1181, November.
    16. James Vaupel & Vladimir Romo, 2003. "Decomposing change in life expectancy: A bouquet of formulas in honor of Nathan Keyfitz’s 90th birthday," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(2), pages 201-216, May.
    17. Nikkil Sudharsanan & Maarten J. Bijlsma, 2019. "A generalized counterfactual approach to decomposing differences between populations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Glenn Firebaugh & Claudia Nau & Francesco Acciai & Christopher J Prather & Aggie Noah, 2014. "Why the racial gap in life expectancy is declining in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(32), pages 975-1006.
    19. Hippolyte d'Albis & Loesse Jacques Esso & Héctor Pifarré I Arolas, 2014. "Persistent Differences in Mortality Patterns across Industrialized Countries," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-01061000, HAL.
    20. Per Kragh Andersen & Vladimir Canudas-Romo & Niels Keiding, 2013. "Cause-specific measures of life years lost," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 29(41), pages 1127-1152.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    adult mortality; alcohol; Eastern Europe; violence; accidents; health care; health crisis; cardiovascular diseases;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:28:y:2013:i:32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.