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Stationary populations with below-replacement fertility

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  • Carl Schmertmann

    (Florida State University)

Abstract

Background: A population with sustained below-replacement fertility and constant immigration eventually becomes stationary. Stationary-through-immigration (SI) populations have unusual age structures that depend on the distribution of immigrants' arrival ages. Objective: I summarize known formal relationships between the distribution of immigrants' entry ages and the long-run size and structure of SI populations. I clarify a previously published result about SI dependency ratios. Results: The long-run size and age structure of an SI population depend on the remaining life expectancies of arriving immigrants, but are also sensitive to the expected numbers of native children born after arrival. Numerical calculations with contemporary Austrian data show (1) contrary to previously published results, immigration flows need not be concentrated in early working ages in order to ensure low overall dependency, and (2) the SI dependency ratio is minimized when all immigrants are in their mid-30s.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Schmertmann, 2012. "Stationary populations with below-replacement fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 26(14), pages 319-330.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:26:y:2012:i:14
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
    2. S. Mitra, 1990. "Immigration, below-replacement fertility, and long-term national population trends," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(1), pages 121-129, February.
    3. Zheng Wu & Nan Li, 2003. "Immigration and the dependency ratio of a host population," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 21-39.
    4. Carl Schmertmann, 1992. "Immigrants’ ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 29(4), pages 595-612, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Parr, 2021. "A New Measure of Fertility Replacement Level in the Presence of Positive Net Immigration," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 243-262, March.
    2. Simon, C. & Belyakov, A.O. & Feichtinger, G., 2012. "Minimizing the dependency ratio in a population with below-replacement fertility through immigration," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 158-169.
    3. Joan C. Micó & David Soler & Maria T. Sanz & Antonio Caselles & Salvador Amigó, 2022. "Minimizing Dependency Ratio in Spain through Demographic Variables," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy: Explorations in the Use of Immigration as an Instrument of Control," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 135, McMaster University.
    5. Robin Banerjee & William B.P. Robson, 2009. "Faster, Younger, Richer? The Fond Hope and Sobering Reality of Immigration's Impact on Canada's Demographic and Economic Future," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 291, July.
    6. Nick Parr & Ross Guest, 2014. "A method for socially evaluating the effects of long-run demographic paths on living standards," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(11), pages 275-318.
    7. Juha Alho, 2008. "Migration, fertility, and aging in stable populations," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(3), pages 641-650, August.
    8. Pflaumer, Peter, 1993. "Stationäre Bevölkerungen: Anwendungsmöglichkeiten finanzmathematischer und demographischer Methoden zur Analyse des Einflusses von Wanderungen auf die langfristige Bevölkerungsentwicklung," Discussion Papers, Series II 207, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Austria; formal demography; immigration; below-replacement fertility; stationary population; dependency ratios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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