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Intrinsic Growth Rates and Net Reproduction Rates in the Presence of Migration

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  • Samuel H. Preston
  • Haidong Wang

Abstract

Conventional measures of long‐term population growth such as the intrinsic growth rate and the net reproduction rate assume migration rates to be zero. We develop expressions for analogous measures that register the impact of net migration rates, and we develop a simple method of estimating their values. Applying these new measures to data for developed countries shows that allowance for migration raises net reproduction rates by 0.2‐0.3 in areas of overseas European settlement and by approximately half as much in Northern and Western Europe. The newly defined intrinsic growth rates in Eastern Europe are exceptionally low at ‐1.7 percent to ‐2.4 percent per annum. In contrast, the migration‐adjusted intrinsic growth rate of the United States exceeds those of Asia and Latin America. The formulas and estimation procedures described should allow a more precise understanding of the implications of current migration patterns for long‐term growth prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel H. Preston & Haidong Wang, 2007. "Intrinsic Growth Rates and Net Reproduction Rates in the Presence of Migration," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(4), pages 357-666, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:33:y:2007:i:4:p:357-666
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00192.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas Espenshade & Leon Bouvier & W. Arthur, 1982. "Immigration and the stable population model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(1), pages 125-133, February.
    2. Paul Demeny, 2003. "Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty‐First Century," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(1), pages 1-28, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nick Parr, 2021. "A New Measure of Fertility Replacement Level in the Presence of Positive Net Immigration," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 243-262, March.
    2. Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 7: The rising importance of migrants for childbearing in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(9), pages 225-248.
    3. Timothy Riffe & Kieron J. Barclay & Sebastian Klüsener & Christina Bohk-Ewald, 2019. "Boom, echo, pulse, flow: 385 years of Swedish births," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Corey Sparks, 2009. "An application of the variable-r method to subpopulation growth rates in a 19th century agricultural population," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(2), pages 23-64.

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