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Long-Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

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  • Patrice Dion
  • Éric Caron-Malenfant
  • Chantal Grondin
  • Dominic Grenier

Abstract

type="main"> We analyze the direct and indirect demographic contribution of immigration to the foreign-origin composition of the Canadian population according to various projection scenarios over a century, from 2006 to 2106. More specifically, we use Statistics Canada's Demosim microsimulation model to assess the long-term sensitivity to immigration levels and the frequency of mixed unions of the share of immigrants in Canada and of persons who have at least one ancestor who arrived after 2006. The results of the simulations show that the population renewal process through immigration happens at a fast pace in a high immigration and low fertility country such as Canada. Under the scenarios developed, immigrants who entered after 2006 and their descendants could form the majority of the population by 2058 at the earliest and by 2079 at the latest and could represent between 62 percent and 88 percent in 2106. They also show that mixed unions are a key element of the speed at which the changes are likely to occur in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrice Dion & Éric Caron-Malenfant & Chantal Grondin & Dominic Grenier, 2015. "Long-Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 109-126, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:41:y:2015:i:1:p:109-126
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00028.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chris Wilson & Tomáš Sobotka & Lee Williamson & Paul Boyle, 2013. "Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 131-157, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oldrich Bures & Radka Klvanova & Robert Stojanov, 2020. "Strengths and Weaknesses of Canadian Express Entry System: Experts’ Perceptions," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(4), pages 787-812, December.

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