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Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model

Author

Listed:
  • Leigh Johnson

    (University of Cape Town (UCT))

  • Rob Dorrington

    (University of Cape Town (UCT))

  • Debbie Bradshaw

    (South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC))

  • Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk

    (Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC))

  • Thomas Rehle

    (Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC))

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the effects of different types of sexual risk behaviour on the spread of HIV in South Africa. A mathematical model is developed to simulate changes in numbers of sexual partners, changes in marital status, changes in commercial sex activity and changes in the frequency of unprotected sex over the life course. This is extended to allow for the transmission of HIV, and the model is fitted to South African HIV prevalence data and sexual behaviour data. Results suggest that concurrent partnerships and other non-spousal partnerships are major drivers of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Leigh Johnson & Rob Dorrington & Debbie Bradshaw & Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk & Thomas Rehle, 2009. "Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(11), pages 289-340.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:21:y:2009:i:11
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.21.11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    9. Karim, Q.A. & Karim, S.S.A. & Soldan, K. & Zondi, M., 1995. "Reducing the risk of HIV infection among South African sex workers: Socioeconomic and gender barriers," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 85(11), pages 1521-1525.
    10. Hans Hansen, 2000. "An AIDS model with reproduction with an application based on data from Uganda," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 175-203.
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    12. Tawfik, Linda & Watkins, Susan Cotts, 2007. "Sex in Geneva, sex in Lilongwe, and sex in Balaka," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(5), pages 1090-1101, March.
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    14. Jewkes, Rachel & Vundule, Caesar & Maforah, Fidelia & Jordaan, Esmé, 2001. "Relationship dynamics and teenage pregnancy in South Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 733-744, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Black, Samantha & Wallace, Melissa & Middelkoop, Keren & Robbertze, Dante & Bennie, Thola & Wood, Robin & Bekker, Linda-Gail, 2014. "Improving HIV testing amongst adolescents through an integrated Youth Centre rewards program: Insights from South Africa," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 98-105.
    2. Snyder, Kate & Wallace, Melissa & Duby, Zoe & Aquino, Lisa D.H. & Stafford, Stephen & Hosek, Sybil & Futterman, Donna & Bekker, Linda-Gail, 2014. "Preliminary results from Hlanganani (Coming Together): A structured support group for HIV-infected adolescents piloted in Cape Town, South Africa," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 114-121.
    3. Carel Pretorius & John Stover & Lori Bollinger & Nicolas Bacaër & Brian Williams, 2010. "Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) and Its Impact on HIV-1 Transmission in South Africa," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-10, November.
    4. Dobromir Dimitrov & Marie-Claude Boily & Elizabeth R Brown & Timothy B Hallett, 2013. "Analytic Review of Modeling Studies of ARV Based PrEP Interventions Reveals Strong Influence of Drug-Resistance Assumptions on the Population-Level Effectiveness," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-9, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS; South Africa; sexual behavior; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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