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HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM

Author

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  • Eline Korenromp
  • Carina van Vliet
  • Roel Bakker
  • Sake de Vlas
  • J. Dik
  • F. Habbema

Abstract

We studied how sexual behaviour affects population HIV spread simulating stylized risk profiles: (1) prostitution, no short relationships (resembling settings in South-East Asia); (2) prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling South-America and urban sub-Saharan Africa); (3) no prostitution, concurrent short relationships (resembling rural sub-Saharan Africa); (4) prostitution, serial short relationships (a generic low-risk setting). We explored the impact on HIV prevalence of prevention programs accomplishing postponement of sexual debut, reduction in partner change rate and in prostitution. We described the representation of sexual behaviour in the microsimulation model STDSIM, comparing it to non-individual-based models. The profiles generate markedly different time courses of HIV spread. Concentration of risk causes a rapid initial spread (Profiles 1 and 2), whereas the final prevalence depends more on the overall extent of risk behaviour in the general population (highest for Profiles 2 and 3). Effects of partnership reduction are strongly context dependent. Small decreases in numbers of partners reduce HIV spread considerably if they reflect decreases in the contacts of highest risk in that setting. In settings with risk behaviour dispersed over a large part of the population (Profiles 2 and 3), indirect effects can cause the impact on HIV to be disproportionately large compared to the magnitude of behaviour change.

Suggested Citation

  • Eline Korenromp & Carina van Vliet & Roel Bakker & Sake de Vlas & J. Dik & F. Habbema, 2000. "HIV spread and partnership reduction for different patterns of sexual behaviour - a study with the microsimulation model STDSIM," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 135-173.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:mpopst:v:8:y:2000:i:2:p:135-173
    DOI: 10.1080/08898480009525479
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leigh F. Johnson & Rob Dorrington, 2006. "Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(22), pages 541-574.
    2. Leigh Johnson & Rob Dorrington & Debbie Bradshaw & Victoria Pillay-Van Wyk & Thomas Rehle, 2009. "Sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa and their association with the spread of HIV: insights from a mathematical model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(11), pages 289-340.
    3. Raouf Boucekkine, 2012. "Epidemics From the Economic Theory Viewpoint," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-3, January.

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