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The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates

Author

Listed:
  • Marilia Miranda Fortes Gomes

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG))

  • Cássio M. Turra

    (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG))

Abstract

The Brazilian population is rapidly aging. As a result, the number of centenarians has grown steadily, about 77 per cent between 1991 and 2000. Although expected, the increasing number of centenarians may be exaggerated by data quality issues. We compare the recorded centenarian population in the 1991 census with indirect estimates based on the extinct generation method. We find three times more people in the census than according to the indirect estimates. Uncertainty about the true size of old-age populations has important implications in data-deficient countries, particularly in the estimation of adult mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Marilia Miranda Fortes Gomes & Cássio M. Turra, 2009. "The number of centenarians in Brazil: Indirect estimates based on death certificates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 20(20), pages 495-502.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:20:y:2009:i:20
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2009.20.20
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Bourbeau & André Lebel, 2000. "Mortality statistics for the oldest-old," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(2).
    2. A. Roger Thatcher & Väinö Kannisto & Kirill F. Andreev, 2002. "The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    3. Irma Elo & Samuel Preston, 1994. "Estimating African-American mortality from inaccurate data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 427-458, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cássio M. Turra & Fernando Fernandes & Júlia Almeida Calazans & Marília R. Nepomuceno, 2023. "Age reporting for the oldest old in the Brazilian COVID-19 vaccination database: What can we learn from it?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(28), pages 829-848.
    2. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "Assessing the quality of education reporting in Brazilian censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(15), pages 441-460.
    3. Marília R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2020. "The Population of Centenarians in Brazil: Historical Estimates from 1900 to 2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(4), pages 813-833, December.
    4. Dana Glei & Andres Barajas Paz & Jose Manuel Aburto & Magali Barbieri, 2021. "Mexican mortality 1990‒2016: Comparison of unadjusted and adjusted estimates," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(30), pages 719-758.
    5. Filipe Costa Souza & Wilton Bernardino & Silvio C. Patricio, 2024. "How life-table right-censoring affected the Brazilian social security factor: an application of the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham model," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 1-38, September.
    6. Marilia R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2019. "Assessing the quality of self-reported education in Brazil with intercensal survivorship ratios," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortality; longevity; Brazil; centenarians; age misreporting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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