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A Method for Estimating Size of Population Aged 90 and over with Application to the U.S. Census 2000 Data

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  • Kirill F. Andreev

    (United Nations)

Abstract

In many countries population estimates are unreliable at higher ages. In this article a method for producing an independent estimate of population aged 90+ from data on deaths and population estimates at lower ages is developed. The method builds on an indirect mortality estimate from deaths only and on an estimate of rate of mortality change. Theoretical foundation and bias expected on application of this procedure to the real data are discussed as well. Testing of this method on accurate demographic data shows its superiority over available procedures. The method has been applied to the evaluation of size of population 90+ in the census 2000 of the United States. The results show a high degree of agreement between two estimates, but the possibility of slight overestimation of males in census data cannot be completely ruled out. To facilitate the application of this method, a computer program is provided as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirill F. Andreev, 2004. "A Method for Estimating Size of Population Aged 90 and over with Application to the U.S. Census 2000 Data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 11(9), pages 235-262.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:11:y:2004:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2004.11.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Irma Elo & Samuel Preston, 1994. "Estimating African-American mortality from inaccurate data," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 31(3), pages 427-458, August.
    2. A. Roger Thatcher & Väinö Kannisto & Kirill F. Andreev, 2002. "The Survivor Ratio Method for Estimating Numbers at High Ages," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18.
    3. Mark Hill & Samuel Preston & Ira Rosenwaike, 2000. "Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(2), pages 175-186, May.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1951_6n2_0204 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    census; indirect estimation; data quality; indirect population estimates; indirect mortality estimates; advanced age;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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