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Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model

Author

Listed:
  • Lau Caspar Thygesen

    (Statens Institut for Folkesundhed)

  • Lisbeth B. Knudsen

    (Aalborg University)

  • Niels Keiding

    (Københavns Universitet)

Abstract

Despite the small size of Denmark, there have traditionally been rather consistent regional differences in fertility rates. We apply the statistical age-period-cohort model to include the effect of these three time-related factors thereby concisely illuminating the regional differences of first-time births in Denmark. From the Fertility of Women and Couples Dataset we obtain data on number of births by nulliparous women by year (1980-1994), age (15-45) and county of residence. We show that the APC-model describes the fertility rates of nulliparous women satisfactorily. To catch the regional variation an interaction parameter between age and county is necessary, which provides a surprisingly good description suggesting that the county-specific age-distributions of first-time fertility rates differ. Our results are in general agreement with the 'moral geography' concepts of Tonboe (2001).

Suggested Citation

  • Lau Caspar Thygesen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Niels Keiding, 2005. "Modelling regional variation of first-time births in Denmark 1980-1994 by an age-period-cohort model," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(23), pages 573-596.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:13:y:2005:i:23
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2005.13.23
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neyer, Gerda, 2003. "Family Policies and Low Fertility in Western Europe," Discussion Paper 161, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Johan Surkyn & Ron Lesthaeghe, 2004. "Value Orientations and the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) in Northern, Western and Southern Europe: An Update," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(3), pages 45-86.
    3. Gerda R. Neyer, 2003. "Family policies and low fertility in Western Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jesús Rodrigo-Comino & Gianluca Egidi & Adele Sateriano & Stefano Poponi & Enrico Maria Mosconi & Antonio Gimenez Morera, 2021. "Suburban Fertility and Metropolitan Cycles: Insights from European Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Marie-Louise H. Hansen & Ditte Mølgaard-Nielsen & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Niels Keiding, 2009. "Rates of induced abortion in Denmark according to age, previous births and previous abortions," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 21(22), pages 647-680.
    3. Mette Gerster & Niels Keiding & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Katrine Strandberg-Larsen, 2007. "Education and second birth rates in Denmark 1981-1994," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 17(8), pages 181-210.
    4. Samaneh Sadat Nickayin & Bogdana Nosova & Rosario Turco & Massimiliano Giacalone & Luca Salvati, 2022. "Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir & Gianluca Egidi & Rosanna Salvia & Luca Salvati & Adele Sateriano & Antonio Gimenez-Morera, 2021. "Recession, Local Fertility, and Urban Sustainability: Results of a Quasi-Experiment in Greece, 1991–2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Gianluca Egidi & Luca Salvati, 2021. "Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 151-172, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; Denmark; age-period-cohort models; fertility rates; nulliparous women; regional variation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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