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Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth

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  • Athanasia S. Kalaitzi

    (Manchester Metropolitan Business School)

  • Emmanuel Cleeve

    (Manchester Metropolitan Business School)

Abstract

The principal question that this research addresses is the validity of the Export-Led Growth hypothesis (ELG) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the period 1981–2012, focusing on the causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth. Unit root tests are applied to examine the time-series properties of the variables, while the Johansen cointegration test is performed to confirm or not the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the multivariate Granger causality test and a modified version of Wald test are applied to examine the direction of the short-run and long-run causality respectively. The cointegration analysis reveals that manufactured exports contribute more to economic growth than primary exports in the long-run. In addition, this research provides evidence to support a bi-directional causality between manufactured exports and economic growth in the short-run, while the Growth-Led Exports (GLE) hypothesis is valid in the long-run for UAE.

Suggested Citation

  • Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 341-365, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:eurasi:v:8:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s40821-017-0089-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s40821-017-0089-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi & Trevor W. Chamberlain, 2023. "Manufactured exports, disaggregated imports and economic growth: the case of Kuwait," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 919-940, April.
    2. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    3. Kalaitzi Athanasia Stylianou & Kherfi Samer & Alrousan Sahel & Katsaiti Marina-Selini, 2022. "Are Non-Primary Exports the Source for Further Economic Growth in the UAE?," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 29-51, April.
    4. Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "A test of exports-led growth hypothesis in Sub-Saharan African countries: Evidence from panel data analysis," Working Papers 27170, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    5. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi, 2018. "The Causal Effects of Trade and Technology Transfer on Human Capital and Economic Growth in the United Arab Emirates," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, May.
    6. Amjad Taha & Mucahit Aydin & Taiwo Temitope Lasisi & Festus Victor Bekun & Narayan Sethi, 2023. "Toward a sustainable growth path in Arab economies: an extension of classical growth model," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, December.
    7. Daouda Coulibaly & Fulgence Zran Goueu, 2019. "An Empirical Analysis of the Link between Economic Growth and Exports in Côte d’Ivoire," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 94-104, September.
    8. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    9. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AESRI01, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    10. Song, Xianyun & Hou, Wenwen, 2024. "Mineral resources and growth nexus in ASEAN countries: What role do trade diversification, ICT, and financial inclusion play in the resource curse spectrum?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Cristian Dragos Turcan & Viorel - Costin Banta & Sabin – Alexandru Babeanu, 2021. "Initiation And Planning Of An Information System. A Case Study," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(49), pages 43-48, August.
    13. Kalaitzi, Athanasia Stylianou & Chamberlain, Trevor William, 2021. "The validity of the export-led growth hypothesis: some evidence from the GCC," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 106586, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Bahman Huseynli, 2023. "Effect of Exports of Goods and Services and Energy Consumption in Italy`s Service Sector," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 254-261, May.
    15. Amogh Ghimire & Feiting Lin & Peifen Zhuang, 2021. "The Impacts of Agricultural Trade on Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution: Evidence from Bangladesh Using ARDL in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, July.
    16. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effects of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences Offered by QUAD Countries on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(1), pages 33-68.
    17. Athanasia Stylianou Kalaitzi, 2024. "Skill intensity in manufacturing exports: Do basic, technology-intensive or differentiated exports cause growth in Kuwait?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1-30, October.
    18. Titus Isaiah Zayone & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Riza Radmehr, 2020. "Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    19. Abdul Rashid & M. Kabir Hassan & Hafsa Karamat, 2021. "Firm size and the interlinkages between sales volatility, exports, and financial stability of Pakistani manufacturing firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 111-134, March.
    20. Maja Bacovic & Danijela Jacimovic & Julija Cerovic Smolovic, 2020. "Impact of Export of Travel Services on Current Account Balance and Growth in Mediterranean Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2020(6), pages 710-728.
    21. Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Is export-led growth hypothesis still valid for sub-Saharan African countries? New evidence from panel data analysis," European Journal of Management and Business Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(1), pages 77-93, April.
    22. Nesrine Gafsi & Sayef Bakari, 2024. "Impacts of Agricultural CO2 Emissions, Agricultural Exports and Financial Development on Economic Growth: Insights from East Asia and Pacific Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 136-153, November.
    23. ONOSE, Okpeku Lilian & Aras, Osman Nuri, 2021. "Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?," MPRA Paper 108350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Maja Bacovic & Danijela Jacimovic & Julija Cerovic Smolovic, . "Impact of Export of Travel Services on Current Account Balance and Growth in Mediterranean Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 0.
    25. Nicholas M Odhiambo, 2021. "Is Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Still Valid For Sub-Saharan African Countries? New Evidence From Panel Data Analysis," Working Papers AERI0121, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised 25 Aug 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led Growth; Diversification; Economic growth; Causality; UAE;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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