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An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria

Author

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  • Mika’ilu ABUBAKAR

    (Department of Economics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Nigeria)

  • Haruna Mohammed ALIERO

    (Department of Economics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Nigeria)

  • Ali Danjumah UMARU

    (Department of Economics, Usmanu Danfodiyo University, Nigeria)

Abstract

The implications of fiscal deficits on key macroeconomic variables have led to a large body of literature examining the question of whether economies with large and persistent fiscal deficits have high inflation rate. In line with this argument, this research work examines the long-run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation in Nigeria using Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration on a time series data spanning from 1970 to 2011. It further examines the nature and direction of causality between the two variables. The ARDL result reveals that there is insignificant long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. There is also no significant relationship between exchange rate depreciation and inflation. However, there is a positive and significant long-run relationship between interest rate and inflation. On the direction of causality, uni-directional causalities running from fiscal deficit to inflation and also from inflation to interest rates were evident, while no causality between inflation and exchange rates was recorded. The study therefore, concludes that the sustained fiscal deficit maintained over the years is not the cause of inflation. Rather, interest rate is the main cause of inflation, as such policies targeted at inflation control could be best achieved if geared towards reducing interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Mika’ilu ABUBAKAR & Haruna Mohammed ALIERO & Ali Danjumah UMARU, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation in Nigeria," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 67-74.
    • Handle: RePEc:ddj:fseeai:y:2014:i:2:p:67-74
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "What do budget deficits do?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 95-119.
    3. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    4. Hemantha K.J. Ekanayake, 2012. "The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?," ASARC Working Papers 2012-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
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