IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/uza/wpaper/29827.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia

Author

Listed:
  • Aimola, Akingbade U
  • Odhiambo, Nicholas M

Abstract

Several studies have identified the impact of total public debt on inflation. These studies are based on the assumption of a symmetric relationship between these variables. However, because different governments react to changes in total public debt (positive or negative) differently, this study employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to investigate the nature of the link between total public debt and inflation in the Gambia for the period from 1978 to 2019. The results indicate an asymmetric relationship between total public debt and inflation, irrespective of whether the analysis was conducted in the short run or long run. The coefficient of a positive shock in total public debt is statistically significant in the short run and in the long run, suggesting the inflationary effect of positive variation in total public debt in the Gambia. On the other hand, the effect of a negative shock is not statistically significant in the short run or in the long run. These findings reinforce the need for government to approach increase in public debt with caution to minimise volatility in inflation. Overall, this study provides a fresh insight into the optimal estimation technique for testing the public debt?inflation nexus through a nonlinear approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Working Papers 29827, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:29827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://uir.unisa.ac.za/bitstream/handle/10500/29827/21.%20Is%20the%20effect%20of%20public%20debt%20on%20inflation%20symmetric%20or%20asymmetric%20Evidence%20from%20the%20Gambia.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    3. António Afonso & Yasfir Ibraimo, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of public debt: an empirical analysis of Mozambique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 212-226, January.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    5. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January.
    6. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    7. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    8. World Bank, 2007. "The Gambia - From Entrepot to Exporter and Eco-tourism : Diagnostic Trade Integration Study for the Integrated Framework for Trade-related Technical Assistance to Least Developed Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 7682, The World Bank Group.
    9. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    10. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 467-474, March.
    11. Majid Taghavi, 2000. "Debt, growth and inflation in large European economies: a vector auto-regression analysis," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 159-173.
    12. A.U. Aimola & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRI-2021-06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    13. José Pablo Barquero Romero & Kerry Loaiza Marín, 2017. "Inflation and Public Debt," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 39-94, January-J.
    14. Goohoon Kwon & Lavern McFarlane & Wayne Robinson, 2006. "Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study and Its Application to Jamaica," IMF Working Papers 2006/121, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    16. José Augusto Lopes da Veiga & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 294-322, June.
    17. BILDIRICI, Melike & ERSIN, Ozgur Omer, 2007. "Domestic Debt, Inflation And Economic Crises: A Panel Cointegration Application To Emerging And Developed Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(1).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lidiema, Caspah, 2024. "Monetary-fiscal policy interdependence and pricing dynamics: Empirical estimation of fiscal dominance in Kenya," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 83, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aimola, Akingbade U & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Public debt and inflation: Empirical evidence from Ghana," Working Papers 27063, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    2. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRIWP06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    3. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2020. "Public Debt and Inflation: A Review of International Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 9-24, June.
    4. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    5. Akingbade U. Aimola & Nicholas M. Odhiambo & Christian Nsiah, 2021. "Public debt and inflation nexus in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds test approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 1921905-192, January.
    6. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    7. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Public Debt And Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI05, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    8. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Working Papers AESRI-2021-07, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Oct 2021.
    9. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    10. Van Bon Nguyen, 2022. "Does governance matter for the public debt–inflation relationship in developed countries? Panel quantile regression approach," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 1153-1173, December.
    11. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2021. "Public debt and inflation dynamics: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 14-30, December.
    12. Boukraine, Wissem, 2020. "Short and long-run determinants of inflation in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 102014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Godwin Essang Esu,(PhD), 2023. "Fiscal Imbalances, Economic Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(8), pages 887-901, August.
    14. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, "undated". "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation In Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Working Papers AESRI06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI).
    15. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Public Debt on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Zimbabwe," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 77-106.
    16. Abigail Stiglingh & Lerato Mothibi, 2019. "The link between government expenditure and debt as potential drivers of economic growth in South Africa," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9912043, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    17. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    18. T. Saungweme & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation In Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Working Papers AESRI-2021-25, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Dec 2022.
    19. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2022. "Does Public Debt Granger-Cause Inflation in Tanzania? A Multivariate Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 75(1), pages 75-100.
    20. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2021. "Does public debt granger-cause inflation? A multivariate analysis," Working Papers 28342, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL); public debt; inflation; the Gambia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uza:wpaper:29827. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shaun Donovan (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deusaza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.