IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v12y2020i2p123-140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Clement Olalekan Olaniyi

Abstract

This paper investigates the symmetric and asymmetric relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in Nigeria within the context of bootstrap simulations with leverage adjustments using the quarterly frequency data from 1981Q1 to 2016Q4. The findings reveal that there is neither symmetric nor asymmetric causality between fiscal deficits and inflation in Nigeria. This implies that the fiscal deficits in Nigeria are not inflationary; and also, that persistent double-digit inflation rates are not the causal agents spurring perennial increase in fiscal deficits in Nigeria. This study, therefore, concludes that fiscal deficits could be used to stimulate output level in Nigeria without fueling inflationary spiral in the economy. JEL Classification: C32, E17

Suggested Citation

  • Clement Olalekan Olaniyi, 2020. "Application of Bootstrap Simulation and Asymmetric Causal Approach to Fiscal Deficit-Inflation Nexus," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 12(2), pages 123-140, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:123-140
    DOI: 10.1177/0974910120919021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0974910120919021
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0974910120919021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stanley Fischer & Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 837-880, September.
    2. O. Cevdet Akcay & C. Emre Alper & Suleyman Ozmucur, 2001. "Budget Deficit, Inflation and Debt Sustainability: Evidence from Turkey(1970-2000)," Working Papers 2001/12, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    3. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    4. Komulainen, Tuomas & Pirttila, Jukka, 2002. "Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 293-316.
    5. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan B., 2019. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary in African countries? A new evidence from an asymmetric cointegration analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    6. Niskanen, William A., 1978. "Deficits, government spending, and inflation : What is the evidence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 591-602, August.
    7. Metin, Kivilcim, 1998. "The Relationship between Inflation and the Budget Deficit in Turkey," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 412-422, October.
    8. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1984. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Brian Griffiths & Geoffrey E. Wood (ed.), Monetarism in the United Kingdom, pages 15-41, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Jude Okechukwu Chukwu, 2013. "Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Price Level in Nigeria," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 468-477, December.
    10. Francesco Bianchi & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agent's Beliefs," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 113-139, October.
    11. Landon, Stuart & Reid, Bradford G, 1990. "Government Deficits and Money Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 382-389, August.
    12. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    13. Sbia, Rashid & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hamdi, Helmi, 2014. "A contribution of foreign direct investment, clean energy, trade openness, carbon emissions and economic growth to energy demand in UAE," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 191-197.
    14. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    15. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1997. "Are budget deficits inflationary? A cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(8), pages 493-496.
    16. Ebenezer A. OLUBIYI & Michael A. BOLARINWA, 2018. "Fiscal deficit and inflation rate in selected African Regional Blocs: A comparative analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 89-101, March.
    17. Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
    18. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J, 2012. "A bootstrap test for causality with endogenous lag length choice: theory and application in finance," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(2), pages 144-160, May.
    19. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    20. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    21. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    22. Pragidis, Ioannis & Gogas, Periklis & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2015. "Fiscal shocks and asymmetric effects: A comparative analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 22-33.
    23. Catao, Luis A.V. & Terrones, Marco E., 2005. "Fiscal deficits and inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 529-554, April.
    24. McMillin, W. Douglas & Beard, Thomas R., 1982. "Deficits, money and inflation : Comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 273-277.
    25. Karras, Georgios, 1994. "Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 190-210, April.
    26. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    27. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2014. "Asymmetric generalized impulse responses with an application in finance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-22.
    28. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2019. "The Causal Impact of Stock Market Development on Economic Development in the UAE: An Asymmetric Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 171-184.
    29. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Youssef El-Khatib, 2016. "An extension of the asymmetric causality tests for dealing with deterministic trend components," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(42), pages 4033-4041, September.
    30. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 2002. "Modern Hyper- and High Inflations," IMF Working Papers 2002/197, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Faini, Riccardo, 1991. "The macroeconomics of the public sector deficit : the case of Morocco," Policy Research Working Paper Series 631, The World Bank.
    32. Helpman,Elhanan & Sadka,Efraim (ed.), 2003. "Economic Policy in the International Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521815192, October.
    33. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    34. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
    35. Jamaleddin Mohseni Zonuzi & Mahnaz S.Hashemi Pourvaladi & Nasrin Faraji, 2011. "The Relationship between Budget Deficit and Inflation in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 16(1), pages 117-133, winter.
    36. Ahking, Francis W. & Miller, Stephen M., 1985. "The relationship between government deficits, money growthm and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 447-467.
    37. Albert Makochekanwa, 2011. "Impact of Budget Deficit on Inflation in Zimbabwe," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 49-59, December.
    38. Kashif Ali & Mahmood Khalid, 2019. "Sources to Finance Fiscal Deficit and Their Impact on Inflation: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(1), pages 27-43.
    39. Eugenia Ramona MARA & Eva DEZSI, 2011. "Fiscal Policy Impact on Inflation Volatility in Romania in The Economic Crisis Context," Finante - provocarile viitorului (Finance - Challenges of the Future), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(13), pages 181-187, December.
    40. Tahira Ishaq & Hassan M. Mohsin, 2015. "Deficits and inflation; Are monetary and financial institutions worthy to consider or not?," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 15(3), pages 180-191, September.
    41. Click, Reid W, 1998. "Seigniorage in a Cross-Section of Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(2), pages 154-171, May.
    42. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    43. Kurayish Ssebulime & Bbaale Edward, 2019. "Budget deficit and inflation nexus in Uganda 1980–2016: a cointegration and error correction modeling approach," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, December.
    44. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2020. "A Note On Inflation Dynamics, Price Volatility, And Fiscal Activism," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1299-1313, July.
    45. Hemantha K.J. Ekanayake, 2012. "The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?," ASARC Working Papers 2012-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    46. De Haan, Jakob & Zelhorst, Dick, 1990. "The impact of government deficits on money growth in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 455-469, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Segun Thompson Bolarinwa & Munacinga Simatele, 2024. "Asymmetric Analysis of Causal Relations in the Informality–Globalisation Nexus in Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-25, June.
    2. Clement Olalekan Olaniyi & James Temitope Dada & Nicholas Mbaya Odhiambo & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2023. "Modelling asymmetric structure in the finance-poverty nexus: empirical insights from an emerging market economy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 453-487, February.
    3. Joel Oyeleke*, Olusola, 2021. "Frequency Domain Approach To Causality Among Fiscal Deficit, Interest Rates And Inflation In Nigeria," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 8(1), pages 46-59, June.
    4. Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2021. "On the Non-Linear Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: The Nigeria Experience," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 105-117, May.
    5. Osinubi Tolulope T. & Ajayi Adedoyin O. & Osinubi Olufemi B. & Olaniyi Clement O., 2021. "A New Intuition into Tourism-Inclusive Growth Nexus in Turkey and Nigeria (1995 – 2018)," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 221-241, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Hsin-Yi & Chu, Hao-Pang, 2013. "Are fiscal deficits inflationary?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 214-233.
    2. Esat Durguti & Nexhat Kryeziu & Emine Gashi, 2020. "How Does the Budget Deficit Affect Inflation Rate-Evidence from Western Balkans," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 9(1), pages 01-10, January.
    3. Maissa Elmrabet & Boulila Ghazi, 2018. "Causality deficit-inflation : wavelet transform," Working Papers hal-01941464, HAL.
    4. Bilal Raza & Khurram S Mughal, 2022. "Fiscal Determinants of Inflation in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 108, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    5. Mr. Jean-Claude Nachega, 2005. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2005/221, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Budget deficits, money supply and price level in West Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1-8, October.
    7. Mwankemwa, Lusajo P. & Luvanda, Eliab, 2021. "Fiscal Deficit and its Threshold Effects on Inflation in Tanzania," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(1), December.
    8. Hossein-Ali Fakher, 2016. "The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(4), pages 551-579, Autumn.
    9. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    10. Hemantha K.J. Ekanayake, 2012. "The Link Between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: Do public sector wages matter?," ASARC Working Papers 2012-14, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    11. Philipp F. M. Baumann & Enzo Rossi & Alexander Volkmann, 2020. "What Drives Inflation and How: Evidence from Additive Mixed Models Selected by cAIC," Papers 2006.06274, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    12. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.
    13. Sabaté, Marcela & Fillat, Carmen & Escario, Regina, 2019. "Budget deficits and money creation: Exploring their relation before Bretton Woods," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 38-56.
    14. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Samad Sarferaz, 2016. "On the Low‐Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 566-583, April.
    15. José Pablo Barquero Romero & Kerry Loaiza Marín, 2017. "Inflation and Public Debt," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 39-94, January-J.
    16. Sergey Pekarski, 2017. "Tight Money and the Sustainability of Public Debt," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 191-223, February.
    17. Olusola Joel Oyeleke, 2021. "On the Non-Linear Relationship between Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: The Nigeria Experience," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 27(2), pages 105-117, May.
    18. Kreiter, Zebulun & Paul, Tapas Kumar, 2010. "Deficit Financing and Inflation in Bangladesh: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MPRA Paper 45981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    20. Lamia Bazzaoui & Jun Nagayasu, 2021. "Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-26, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal deficit; inflation; asymmetric causality; bootstrap simulation; Nigeria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:12:y:2020:i:2:p:123-140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.