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Saving Europe's Automatic Stabilisers

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  • Eichengreen, Barry

Abstract

European policymakers have repeatedly suggested that fiscal-policy coordination and fiscal federalism will play key roles in Europe's monetary union. This paper warns that this hope is misplaced. Fiscal federalism will not be available to offset recessionary shocks for the foreseeable future. The effects of coordination designed to internalise the cross-border spillovers of fiscal policies are too weak. Freeing up fiscal policy to replace national governments' loss of monetary independence requires allowing European countries' automatic stabilisers to operate. That in turn requires a flexible application of the Excessive Deficit Procedure and the Stability Pact.The solution suggested here is that the Excessive Deficit Procedure and any fines and sanctions associated with the Stability Pact be applied to the constant-employment budget balance, not the actual deficit. Applying them to actual deficits when European countries enter EMU up against the 3 per cent limit will render fiscal policy strongly procyclical, aggravating the problem of macroeconomic fragility created by the loss of monetary autonomy. Still, countries like Germany haunted by the spectre of fiscal pro fligacy need to be reassured that member states will not abuse their fiscal discretion. Procedural and institutional reform to offset the deficit bias in national political systems is the obvious quid pro quo.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry, 1997. "Saving Europe's Automatic Stabilisers," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 159, pages 92-98, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:159:y:1997:i::p:92-98_7
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/05, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Mr. Roel M. W. J. Beetsma & Mr. Xavier Debrun & Mr. Franc Klaassen, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," IMF Working Papers 2001/178, International Monetary Fund.
    3. William Mitchell, 2016. "Eurozone Groupthink and Denial on a Grand Scale," World Economic Review, World Economics Association, vol. 2016(7), pages 43-55, July.
    4. Tamborini, Roberto & Tomaselli, Matteo, 2020. "The determinants of austerity in the European Union 2010–16," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
    6. William Mitchell, 2015. "Eurozone Dystopia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16478.
    7. Asdrubali, Pierfederico & Kim, Soyoung, 2004. "Dynamic risksharing in the United States and Europe," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 809-836, May.
    8. Bernhard Winkler, 1999. "Co-ordinating Stability: Some Remarks on the Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policy under EMU," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 287-295, September.
    9. repec:bla:intfin:v:4:y:2001:i:3:p:441-62 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dominique Bureau, 1998. "Pacte de stabilité, crédibilité et stabilisation dans l'union monétaire européenne," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 132(1), pages 49-57.
    11. Luca Onorante, 2006. "Interaction of Fiscal Policies on the Euro Area: How Much Pressure on the ECB?," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/9, European University Institute.

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