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A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War

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  • Bas, Muhammet A.
  • Coe, Andrew J.

Abstract

We develop a formal model of bargaining between two states where one can invest in a program to develop nuclear weapons and the other imperfectly observes its efforts and progress over time. In the absence of a nonproliferation deal, the observing state watches the former's program, waiting until proliferation seems imminent to attack. Chance elements—when the program will make progress and when the other state will discover this—determine outcomes. Surprise proliferation, crises over the suspected progress of a nuclear program, and possibly “mistaken” preventive wars arise endogenously from these chance elements. Consistent with the model's predictions and contrary to previous studies, the empirical evidence shows that the progress of a nuclear program and intelligence estimates of it explain the character and outcomes of most interactions between a proliferant and a potential preventive attacker. Counterintuitively, policies intended to reduce proliferation by delaying nuclear programs or improving monitoring capabilities may instead encourage it.

Suggested Citation

  • Bas, Muhammet A. & Coe, Andrew J., 2016. "A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 655-685, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:70:y:2016:i:04:p:655-685_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Jin Yeub Kim, 2022. "Negotiation statements with promise and threat," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 26(2), pages 149-164, June.
    2. Philip E. Tetlock & Christopher Karvetski & Ville A. Satopää & Kevin Chen, 2024. "Long‐range subjective‐probability forecasts of slow‐motion variables in world politics: Exploring limits on expert judgment," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    3. Michael Gibilisco, 2023. "Mowing the grass," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 35(3), pages 204-231, July.
    4. Bradley C. Smith & William Spaniel, 2020. "Introducing ν-CLEAR: a latent variable approach to measuring nuclear proficiency," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(2), pages 232-256, March.
    5. Kyle Haynes & Brandon K. Yoder, 2024. "Trust, cooperation, and the tradeoffs of reciprocity," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 41(1), pages 26-46, January.
    6. William Spaniel, 2022. "Scientific intelligence, nuclear assistance, and bargaining," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 39(4), pages 447-469, July.
    7. Muhammet A. Bas & Aseem Mahajan, 2020. "Contesting the climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1985-2002, October.

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