IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v61y2024i6p933-951.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the puzzle of endogenous nuclear proliferation

Author

Listed:
  • Azusa Katagiri

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

Nuclear proliferation literature typically differentiates supply-side and demand-side factors influencing the spread of nuclear weapons. These distinct approaches to the proliferation puzzle raise the following empirical questions: Does nuclear supply stimulate states’ demand for nuclear weapons? Conversely, does the demand for nuclear weapons really facilitate the acquisition of nuclear supply? If such endogeneity exists between the demand-side and supply-side determinants, how would it cause empirical bias in the estimation of their effects on nuclear proliferation? This article aims to unpack endogenous mechanisms of nuclear demand and nuclear supply over the course of nuclear proliferation. In particular, it examines two potential sources of endogeneity: (1) simultaneous interactions between states’ nuclear development decisions and nuclear technological capability and (2) selection bias in nuclear development. To address each source of endogeneity, simultaneous equation models and the duration models with selection are estimated, respectively. Contrary to what recent supply-side literature suggests, the empirical analyses reveal that states’ nuclear demand is primarily driven by external security threats instead of their existing nuclear technology, and that their successful acquisition of nuclear technology mainly follows as the result of nuclear development efforts but does not necessarily depend on individual supply-side factors. This article addresses the typical inference issues in nuclear proliferation research and contributes to our synthetic understanding of proliferation mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Azusa Katagiri, 2024. "Revisiting the puzzle of endogenous nuclear proliferation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 61(6), pages 933-951, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:61:y:2024:i:6:p:933-951
    DOI: 10.1177/00223433231177727
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433231177727
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/00223433231177727?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coe, Andrew J. & Vaynman, Jane, 2020. "Why Arms Control Is So Rare," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(2), pages 342-355, May.
    2. Henningsen, Arne & Hamann, Jeff D., 2007. "systemfit: A Package for Estimating Systems of Simultaneous Equations in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i04).
    3. Bas, Muhammet A. & Coe, Andrew J., 2016. "A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 655-685, October.
    4. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    5. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    6. Miller, Nicholas L., 2022. "Learning to Predict Proliferation," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 487-507, February.
    7. Kroenig, Matthew, 2009. "Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 113-133, February.
    8. Carter, David B. & Signorino, Curtis S., 2010. "Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Campbell, Randall C. & Nagel, Gregory L., 2016. "Private information and limitations of Heckman's estimator in banking and corporate finance research," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 186-195.
    2. Maximilian Klöckner & Christoph G. Schmidt & Stephan M. Wagner, 2022. "When Blockchain Creates Shareholder Value: Empirical Evidence from International Firm Announcements," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(1), pages 46-64, January.
    3. Riillo, Cesare Fabio Antonio & Peroni, Chiara, 2022. "Immigration and entrepreneurship in Europe: cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 114580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    5. Sande, Jon Bingen & Haugland, Sven A., 2015. "Strategic performance effects of misaligned formal contracting: The mediating role of relational contracting," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 187-194.
    6. Yusen Dong & Pengcheng Ma & Lanzhu Sun & Daniel Han Ming Chng, 2024. "Goodwill Hunting: Why and When Ultimate Controlling Owners Affect Their Firms’ Corporate Social Responsibility Performance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 193(3), pages 535-553, September.
    7. Breunig, Christoph & Mammen, Enno & Simoni, Anna, 2018. "Nonparametric estimation in case of endogenous selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 268-285.
    8. Tang, Ryan W., 2023. "Institutional unpredictability and foreign exit−reentry dynamics: The moderating role of foreign ownership," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    9. Lachos, Victor H. & Prates, Marcos O. & Dey, Dipak K., 2021. "Heckman selection-t model: Parameter estimation via the EM-algorithm," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Nan Zhang & Qiaozhuan Liang & Huiying Li & Xiao Wang, 2022. "The organizational relationship–based political connection and debt financing: Evidence from Chinese private firms," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 69-105, January.
    11. Benjamin L. Collier & Andrew F. Haughwout & Howard C. Kunreuther & Erwann O. Michel‐Kerjan, 2020. "Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(6), pages 1329-1359, September.
    12. Borisova, Ginka & Fotak, Veljko & Holland, Kateryna & Megginson, William L., 2015. "Government ownership and the cost of debt: Evidence from government investments in publicly traded firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 168-191.
    13. Bing Xu & Honglin Wang & Adrian Van Rixtel, 2015. "Do banks extract informational rents through collateral?," BIS Working Papers 522, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. repec:lic:licosd:31912 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lisette Ibanez & Sébastien Roussel, 2022. "The impact of nature video exposure on pro-environmental behavior: An experimental investigation," Post-Print hal-03847453, HAL.
    16. Yi-Chi Hsiao & Hsueh-Liang Wu & Chun-Ping Yeh, 2023. "An investigation of the bridging interface strategies used by Chinese MNE when undertaking FDI to Taiwan," Asian Business & Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(4), pages 1485-1512, September.
    17. Reyna, Debora & Céspedes, Nikita, 2016. "La Oferta Laboral en Perú," Working Papers 2016-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    18. Jaume Garcia Villar & Climent Quintana, 2005. "Body size, activity, employment and wages in Europe: A first approach," Economics Working Papers 897, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2006.
    19. Nathan Canen & Kristopher Ramsay, 2024. "Quantifying theory in politics: Identification, interpretation, and the role of structural methods," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 36(4), pages 301-327, October.
    20. Habiba Al‐Shaer & Yang Stephanie Liu & Khaldoon Albitar, 2024. "Driving businesses towards a better climate: Macro and micro mechanisms to protect the planet," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 1810-1833, March.
    21. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:61:y:2024:i:6:p:933-951. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.