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Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence

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  • de Mesquita, Ethan Bueno

Abstract

What causes the increase in terrorism that reportedly often follows government concessions? Given this pattern, why do governments ever conciliate terrorists? I propose a model in which terrorist organizations become more militant following concessions because only moderate terrorists accept them, leaving extremists in control. Governments nonetheless are willing to make concessions because their counterterror capabilities improve because of the collusion of former terrorists. Former terrorists undertake this collusion to insure the credibility of government promises. The model also yields hypotheses regarding the level of government investment in counterterror, when moderates accept concessions, the terms of negotiated settlements, the duration of terrorist conflicts, incentives for moderate terrorists to radicalize their followers, and incentives for governments to encourage extremist challenges to moderate terrorist leaders. The model is illustrated with an application to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict.Professor Ehud Sprinzak, who died an untimely death on November 8, 2002, first introduced me to the study of terrorism. He is greatly missed. I received valuable comments from Scott Ashworth, Bob Bates, Mia Bloom, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Charles Cohen, Eric Dickson, Amanda Friedenberg, Orit Kedar, David Lake, Macartan Humphreys, Matthew Price, Todd Sandler, Ken Shepsle, David Andrew Singer, Alastair Smith, and Matthew Stephenson.

Suggested Citation

  • de Mesquita, Ethan Bueno, 2005. "Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(1), pages 145-176, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:59:y:2005:i:01:p:145-176_05
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    Cited by:

    1. Artyom Jelnov, 2019. "Note on terrorist factions and their interactions with governments," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1318-1326.
    2. Cárceles-Poveda, Eva & Tauman, Yair, 2011. "A strategic analysis of the war against transnational terrorism," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 49-65, January.
    3. Roland Hodler & Dominic Rohner, 2012. "Electoral terms and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 181-193, January.
    4. Sanghoon Lee, 2010. "Dynamic Inconsistency in Counterterrorism," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 27(4), pages 369-385, September.
    5. Caruso Raul & Klor Esteban F., 2012. "Political Economy Studies on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Introduction," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-10, August.
    6. Kıbrıs Arzu & Kıbrıs Özgür, 2016. "On the Dynamics of Extremist Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Nobuhiro Mizuno & Ryosuke Okazawa, 2017. "Within-group heterogeneity and civil war," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 153-177, May.
    8. Thomas Jensen, 2007. "Terrorism, Anti-Terrorism, and the Copycat Effect," Discussion Papers 07-14, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    9. Singh, Prakarsh, 2011. "Impact of terrorism on investment decisions of farmers: evidence from the Punjab insurgency," MPRA Paper 33328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alex Braithwaite & QUAN LI, 2007. "Transnational Terrorism Hot Spots: Identification and Impact Evaluation," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(4), pages 281-296, September.
    11. Gonzalo de Cadenas-Santiago & Alicia García-Herrero & Álvaro Ortiz Vidal-Abarca & Tomasa Rodrigo, 2015. "An Empirical Assessment of Social Unrest Dynamics and State Response in Eurasian Countries," Eurasian Journal of Social Sciences, Eurasian Publications, vol. 3(3), pages 1-29.
    12. Deniz Aksoy & David Carlson, 2022. "Electoral support and militants’ targeting strategies," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 229-241, March.
    13. Catherine C. Langlois & Jean-Pierre P. Langlois, 2011. "The Escalation of Terror: Hate and the Demise of Terrorist Organizations," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(5), pages 497-521, November.
    14. Kazuhiro Obayashi, 2014. "Information, rebel organization and civil war escalation: The case of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 21-40, March.
    15. Rebecca H. Best & Christine Carpino & Mark J.C. Crescenzi, 2013. "An analysis of the TABARI coding system," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(4), pages 335-348, September.
    16. Michael Perry & Hadi El-Amine, 2019. "Computational Efficiency in Multivariate Adversarial Risk Analysis Models," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 16(4), pages 314-332, December.
    17. Yang Jiao & Zijun Luo, 2019. "A model of terrorism and counterterrorism with location choices," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(3), pages 301-313, June.
    18. Michael T. Koch & Skyler Cranmer, 2007. "Testing the “Dick Cheney†Hypothesis: Do Governments of the Left Attract More Terrorism than Governments of the Right?," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(4), pages 311-326, September.
    19. Opher Baron & Oded Berman & Arieh Gavious, 2018. "A Game Between a Terrorist and a Passive Defender," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 27(3), pages 433-457, March.
    20. Claude Berrebi & Esteban F. Klor, 2006. "On Terrorism and Electoral Outcomes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 50(6), pages 899-925, December.
    21. Tiberiu Dragu & Mattias Polborn, 2009. "Terrorism Prevention and Electoral Accountability," CESifo Working Paper Series 2864, CESifo.
    22. Navin A. Bapat, 2007. "The Internationalization of Terrorist Campaigns," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 24(4), pages 265-280, September.
    23. Shadmehr, Mehdi, 2015. "Extremism in revolutionary movements," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-121.

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