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Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace

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  • Fortna, Virginia Page

Abstract

In the aftermath of war, what determines whether peace lasts or fighting resumes, and what can be done to foster durable peace? Drawing on theories of cooperation, I argue that belligerents can overcome the obstacles to peace by implementing measures that alter incentives, reduce uncertainty about intentions, and manage accidents. A counterargument suggests that agreements are epiphenomenal, merely reflecting the underlying probability of war resumption. I test hypotheses about the durability of peace using hazard analysis. Controlling for factors (including the decisiveness of victory, the cost of war, relative capabilities, and others) that affect the baseline prospects for peace, I find that stronger agreements enhance the durability of peace. In particular, measures such as the creation of demilitarized zones, explicit third-party guarantees, peacekeeping, and joint commissions for dispute resolution affect the duration of peace. Agreements are not merely scraps of paper; rather, their content matters in the construction of peace that lasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Fortna, Virginia Page, 2003. "Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 337-372, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:intorg:v:57:y:2003:i:02:p:337-372_57
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    3. Aly Verjee, 2022. "Ceasefire monitoring under fire: The OSCE, technology, and the 2022 war in Ukraine," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 808-817, November.
    4. Fiedler, Charlotte, 2015. "Towers of strength in turbulent times? Assessing the effectiveness of international support to peace and democracy in Kenya and Kyrgyzstan in the aftermath of interethnic violence," IDOS Discussion Papers 6/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 123-155, August.
    6. Christopher Farrington, 2006. "Non-Violent Opposition to Peace Processes: Northern Ireland's Serial Spoilers," Working Papers 200605, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
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    9. Daniel McCormack & Henry Pascoe, 2017. "Sanctions and Preventive War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(8), pages 1711-1739, September.
    10. Paul F. Diehl, 2006. "Just a Phase?: Integrating Conflict Dynamics Over Time," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 23(3), pages 199-210, July.
    11. Krause, Jana & Krause, Werner & Bränfors, Piia, 2018. "Women’s Participation in Peace Negotiations and the Durability of Peace," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 44(6), pages 985-1016.
    12. Camarena, Kara Ross, 2024. "The geopolitical strategy of refugee camps," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    13. Casper Sakstrup, 2021. "What’s going on next door? Irregular leader change in neighboring countries, uncertainty, and civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(3), pages 539-553, May.
    14. Camarena, Kara Ross, 2022. "Repatriation during conflict: A signaling analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. John Conybeare & Dong-Hun Kim, 2010. "Democracy, Institutionalization, and Corporate Alliances," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(5), pages 715-744, October.
    16. Darren Filson & Suzanne Werner, 2007. "The Dynamics of Bargaining and War," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 31-50, January.
    17. Mroß, Karina, 2015. "The fragile road towards peace and democracy: insights on the effectiveness of international support to post-conflict Burundi," IDOS Discussion Papers 3/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    18. Mross, Karina, 2017. "Fostering democracy and stability in Timor-Leste after the 2006 crisis: on the benefits of coordinated and cooperative forms of support," IDOS Discussion Papers 19/2017, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    19. Terrence L. Chapman & Dan Reiter, 2004. "The United Nations Security Council and the Rally ’Round the Flag Effect," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(6), pages 886-909, December.
    20. Burcu Savun & Brian J. Phillips, 2009. "Democracy, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 878-904, December.
    21. Emilie M. Hafner-Burton & Jana von Stein & Erik Gartzke, 2008. "International Organizations Count," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(2), pages 175-188, April.

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