IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/295228.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is intent to migrate irregularly responsive to recent German asylum policy adjustments?

Author

Listed:
  • Beber, Bernd
  • Ebert, Cara
  • Sievert, Maximiliane

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which asylum policies that aim to deter individuals from migrating irregularly in fact do so. We specifically consider effects of Germany's recent and high-profile asylum policy adjustments, which include accelerated asylum decision processes, the prospect of asylum processing outside of Europe, the introduction of a payment card to replace cash benefits, and an extended waiting period for native-level benefits. In order to estimate effects of these policy measures on irregular migration intent, we implement a conjoint experiment with 989 men aged 18-40 in four cities in Senegal, a population of most-likely migrants in a country where irregular migration to Europe is highly salient. We find that offshoring the asylum process significantly and substantially lowers irregular migration intentions across nearly all types of subjects. Extending the waiting time for native-level benefits only has a small, marginally significant effect on intent, and no effect among the poorest subjects and those that are most motivated to migrate internationally. Neither reducing asylum processing times nor replacing cash benefits with a payment card significantly alters intentions. We note that the presence or absence of an effect does not resolve political and normative questions concerning these policies, which are beyond the scope of this particular study.

Suggested Citation

  • Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara & Sievert, Maximiliane, 2024. "Is intent to migrate irregularly responsive to recent German asylum policy adjustments?," Ruhr Economic Papers 1071, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:295228
    DOI: 10.4419/96973243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/295228/1/1888268115.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/96973243?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoav Benjamini & Abba M. Krieger & Daniel Yekutieli, 2006. "Adaptive linear step-up procedures that control the false discovery rate," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 93(3), pages 491-507, September.
    2. Anderson, Michael L., 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
    3. Timothy J. Hatton, 2016. "Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Policy in OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 441-445, May.
    4. Anne-Marie Jeannet & Tobias Heidland & Martin Ruhs, 2021. "What asylum and refugee policies do Europeans want? Evidence from a cross-national conjoint experiment," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 353-376, September.
    5. Becker, Malte & Krüger, Finja & Heidland, Tobias, 2024. "What Drives Attitudes toward Immigrants in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from Uganda and Senegal," IZA Discussion Papers 16734, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2024. "The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    7. Timothy J. Hatton, 2017. "Refugees and asylum seekers, the crisis in Europe and the future of policy," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 447-496.
    8. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    9. Alrababah, Ala & Masterson, Daniel & Casalis, Marine & Hangartner, Dominik & Weinstein, Jeremy, 2023. "The Dynamics of Refugee Return: Syrian Refugees and Their Migration Intentions," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 1108-1131, October.
    10. Hainmueller, Jens & Hopkins, Daniel J. & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2014. "Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beber, Bernd & Ebert, Cara & Sievert, Maximiliane, 2024. "Is Intent to Migrate Irregularly Responsive to Recent German Asylum Policy Adjustments?," IZA Discussion Papers 16850, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Sievert, Maximiliane & Ebert, Cara & Beber, Bernd, 2024. "Is intent to migrate irregularly responsive to recent German asylum policy adjustments?," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302437, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Anne-Marie Jeannet & Tobias Heidland & Martin Ruhs, 2021. "What asylum and refugee policies do Europeans want? Evidence from a cross-national conjoint experiment," European Union Politics, , vol. 22(3), pages 353-376, September.
    4. Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Langlotz, Sarah, 2019. "The effects of foreign aid on refugee flows," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 127-147.
    5. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    6. Michel Beine & Luisito Bertinelli & Rana Cömertpay & Anastasia Litina & Jean-François Maystadt, 2020. "The Gravity Model of Forced Displacement Using Mobile Phone Data," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-13, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    7. Beine, Michel & Bierlaire, Michel & Docquier, Frédéric, 2021. "New York, Abu Dhabi, London or Stay at Home? Using a Cross-Nested Logit Model to Identify Complex Substitution Patterns in Migration," IZA Discussion Papers 14090, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Unfried, Kerstin & Ibañez Diaz, Marcela & Restrepo-Plazaz, Lina Maria, 2022. "Discrimination in post-conflict settings: Experimental evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Di Iasio, Valentina & Wahba, Jackline, 2024. "The Determinants of Refugees’ Destinations: Where do refugees locate within the EU?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    10. Beine, Michel & Bertinelli, Luisito & Cömertpay, Rana & Litina, Anastasia & Maystadt, Jean-François, 2021. "A gravity analysis of refugee mobility using mobile phone data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Guichard, Lucas & Machado, Joël, 2024. "The Externalities of Immigration Policies on Migration Flows: The Case of an Asylum Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 16935, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2022. "Do applications respond to changes in asylum policies in European countries?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    13. Romain Gauriot Author e-mail: romain.gauriot@nyu.edu & Lionel Page Author e-mail: lionel.page@uts.edu.au, 2021. "How Market Prices React to Information: Evidence from Binary Options Markets," Working Papers 20200058, New York University Abu Dhabi, Department of Social Science, revised Oct 2021.
    14. Michael L. Anderson & Fangwen Lu, 2017. "Learning to Manage and Managing to Learn: The Effects of Student Leadership Service," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(10), pages 3246-3261, October.
    15. Banerjee, Abhijit & Barnhardt, Sharon & Duflo, Esther, 2018. "Can iron-fortified salt control anemia? Evidence from two experiments in rural Bihar," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 127-146.
    16. Emilio Depetris-Chauvin & Ömer Özak, 2020. "The origins of the division of labor in pre-industrial times," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 297-340, September.
    17. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Daniel Bjorkegren & Joshua Blumenstock & Omowunmi Folajimi-Senjobi & Jacqueline Mauro & Suraj R. Nair, 2022. "Instant Loans Can Lift Subjective Well-Being: A Randomized Evaluation of Digital Credit in Nigeria," Papers 2202.13540, arXiv.org.
    19. Cattaneo, Cristina & Grieco, Daniela, 2021. "Turning opposition into support to immigration: The role of narratives," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 785-801.
    20. Miriam Bruhn & David McKenzie, 2019. "Can Grants to Consortia Spur Innovation and Science-Industry Collaboration? Regression- Discontinuity Evidence from Poland," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 33(3), pages 690-716.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asylum policy; irregular migration; conjoint experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • K37 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Immigration Law

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:295228. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.