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Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election

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  • Alvarez, R. Michael
  • Nagler, Jonathan
  • Bowler, Shaun

Abstract

We offer a model of multiparty elections that combines voters' retrospective economic evaluations with consideration of parties' issue positions and the issue preferences of voters. We show that both policy issues and the state of the economy matter in British elections. In 1987 voters made a largely retrospective evaluation of the Conservatives based on economic performance; those who rejected the Conservative Party chose between Labour and Alliance based on issue positions. Through simulations we move the parties in the issue space and reestimate vote shares as well as hypothesize an alternative distribution of views on the economy, and we show that Labour had virtually no chance to win with a centrist party as a viable alternative. The predictions from our 1987 simulations are supported in an analysis of the 1992 British election. We argue for multinomial probit in studying three-party elections because it allows for a richer formulation of politics than do competing methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Alvarez, R. Michael & Nagler, Jonathan & Bowler, Shaun, 2000. "Issues, Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 94(1), pages 131-149, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:94:y:2000:i:01:p:131-149_22
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristina Gualdani & Shruti Sinha, 2023. "Identification in Discrete Choice Models with Imperfect Information," Working Papers 949, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Andrea Junqueira & Thiago N. Silva & Guy D. Whitten, 2023. "What about us? Political competition, economic performance, immigration, and nativist appeals," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(1), pages 11-24, January.
    3. M. Lefebvre & C. Biguzzi & E. Ginon & S. Gomez-y-Paloma & S. R. H. Langrell & S. Marette & G. Mateu & A. Sutan, 2017. "Mandatory integrated pest management in the European Union: experimental insights on consumers’ reactions," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 98(1), pages 25-54, July.
    4. Chris Hanretty & Benjamin E. Lauderdale & Nick Vivyan, 2020. "A Choice‐Based Measure of Issue Importance in the Electorate," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 64(3), pages 519-535, July.
    5. Bhattacharya, Kaushik, 2011. "Strategic Entry and the Relationship between Number of Independent and Non-Independent Candidates: A Study of Parliamentary Elections in India," MPRA Paper 46069, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    6. McKelvey, Richard D. & Patty, John W., 2006. "A theory of voting in large elections," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 155-180, October.
    7. Zakharov, Alexei & Fantazzini, Dean, 2009. "Economic Factors in a Model of Voting: The Case of The Netherlands, Great Britain, and Israel," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 14(2), pages 57-73.
    8. Bhattacharyya, Bhaskar & Mandal, Biswajit & Sengupta, Sarbajit, 2022. "Correlates of Distress Financing In Case of Institutional Delivery In India: Evidence From The National Family Health Survey," MPRA Paper 116652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ignacio Lago‐Peñas & Santiago Lago‐Peñas, 2005. "Does The Economy Matter? An Empirical Analysis Of The Causal Chain Connecting The Economy And The Vote In Galicia," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 215-243, July.

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