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Reason and War

Author

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  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce
  • Lalman, David

Abstract

A new specification of the expected utility model of international conflict places expected utilities within a polar coordinate system; treats third-party choices in a manner more consistent with classical forms; estimates the expected utilities derived from not challenging existing policies; more fully represents the expected costs of conflict; and normalizes expected utilities regardless of system size. By assuming that the probability of escalation of a dispute increases monotonically with leaders' expectations of gain, we derive continuous functions for the probabilities of war, intervention, violence, and peace. The revised theory significantly improves our ability to discriminate between violent and nonviolent disputes and between violent disputes that escalated to warfare and those that did not in Europe between 1816 and 1970.

Suggested Citation

  • Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce & Lalman, David, 1986. "Reason and War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1113-1129, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:80:y:1986:i:04:p:1113-1129_18
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chae-Han Kim, 1991. "Third-Party Participation in Wars," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(4), pages 659-677, December.
    2. Murray Wolfson & Anil Puri & Mario Martelli, 1992. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 119-149, March.
    3. Eguia, Jon X., 2022. "Multilateral regime change," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Bruce J. Bueno De Mesquita & Robert W. Jackman & Randolph M. Siverson, 1991. "Introduction," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 181-186, June.
    5. Marcel van Assen & Frans Stokman & Reinier van Oosten, 2003. "Conflict Measures in Cooperative Exchange Models of Collective Decision-making," Rationality and Society, , vol. 15(1), pages 85-112, February.
    6. Samuel S. G. Wu, 1990. "To Attack or Not to Attack," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(3), pages 531-552, September.
    7. Kurt Taylor Gaubatz, 1991. "Election Cycles and War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 212-244, June.
    8. Samuel Vuchinich & Jay Teachman, 1993. "Influences on the Duration of Wars, Strikes, Riots, and Family Arguments," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 37(3), pages 544-568, September.
    9. Jason B Scholz & Gregory J Calbert & Glen A Smith, 2011. "Unravelling Bueno De Mesquita’s group decision model," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(4), pages 510-531, October.
    10. Susumu Suzuki & Volker Krause & J. David Singer, 2002. "The Correlates of War Project: a Bibliographic History of the Scientific Study of War and Peace, 1964-2000," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 19(2), pages 69-107, September.
    11. Frans N. Stokman & Jaco Berveling, 1998. "Dynamic Modeling of Policy Networks in Amsterdam," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 10(4), pages 577-601, October.
    12. Michelle Benson & Jacek Kugler, 1998. "Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 42(2), pages 196-209, April.

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