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The Availability Heuristic and Reversals Following Large Stock Price Changes

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  • Andrey Kudryavtsev

Abstract

The author explores the effect of the availability heuristic on large daily stock price changes and on subsequent stock returns. He hypothesizes that if a major positive (negative) stock price move takes place on a day when the stock market index rises (falls), then its magnitude may be amplified by the availability of positive (negative) investment outcomes. In both cases, the availability heuristic may cause price overreaction to the initial company-specific shock, resulting in subsequent price reversal. In line with the hypothesis, the author documents that both positive and negative large price moves accompanied by the same-sign contemporaneous daily market returns are followed by significant reversals on the next 2 trading days and over 5- and 20-day intervals following the event, the magnitude of the reversals increasing over longer postevent windows, while large stock price changes taking place on the days when the market index moves in the opposite direction are followed by nonsignificant price drifts. The results remain robust after accounting for additional company (size, beta, historical volatility) and event-specific (stock's return and trading volume on the event day) factors, and are stronger for small and volatile stocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2018. "The Availability Heuristic and Reversals Following Large Stock Price Changes," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 159-176, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:hbhfxx:v:19:y:2018:i:2:p:159-176
    DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2017.1374276
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2021. "Stock Price Dynamics Surrounding Company-Specific Shocks," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 7, pages 32-45.
    2. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Holiday Effect on Large Stock Price Changes," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 633-660, November.
    3. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Tai-Yuen Hon & Massoud Moslehpour & Kai-Yin Woo, 2021. "Review on Behavioral Finance with Empirical Evidence," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(4), pages 15-41, December.
    5. Doh-Khul Kim & Sung-Min Kim, 2022. "What Do We Learn from Daily Leaders and Laggards in Stock Investment? Do They Help Outperform the Market Average?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 14(2), pages 1-44, February.
    6. repec:rfb:journl:v:09:y:2017:i:2:p:007-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "Psychological Aspects of Stock Returns Accompanied by High Trading Volumes," Journal of Risk & Control, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17.
    8. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2019. "The Effect Of Trading Volumes On Stock Returns Following Large Price Moves," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 85-116, January –.
    9. Xie, Jun & Fang, Yuying & Gao, Bin & Tan, Chunzhi, 2023. "Availability heuristic and expected returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. ""I'll Think about it Tomorrow": Price Drifts Following Large Pre-Holiday Stock Price Moves," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 9(2), pages 043-062, December.

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