IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/csb/stintr/v13y2012i2p405-418.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time series model for predicting the mean death rate of a disease

Author

Listed:
  • D. K. Shangodoyin
  • A. O. Adebile
  • J. F. Ojo
  • J. O. Olaomi

Abstract

This study develops a time series model to estimate the mean death rate of either an emerging disease or re-emerging disease with a bilinear induced model. The estimated death rate converges rapidly to the true parameter value for a given mean death at time t. The derived model could be used in predicting the m-step future death rate value of a given disease. We illustrated the new concept with real life data.

Suggested Citation

  • D. K. Shangodoyin & A. O. Adebile & J. F. Ojo & J. O. Olaomi, 2012. "Time series model for predicting the mean death rate of a disease," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 13(2), pages 405-418, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:405-418
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://index.stat.gov.pl/repec/files/csb/stintr/csb_stintr_v13_2012_i2_n15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. W. K. Li & Y. V. Hui, 1983. "Estimation Of Random Coefficient Autoregressive Process: An Empirical Bayes Approach," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 89-94, March.
    2. Colin D Mathers & Dejan Loncar, 2006. "Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(11), pages 1-20, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jia Lu & Shabana Jamani & Joseph Benjamen & Eric Agbata & Olivia Magwood & Kevin Pottie, 2020. "Global Mental Health and Services for Migrants in Primary Care Settings in High-Income Countries: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-28, November.
    2. Matthijs van den Berg & Filip Smit & Theo Vos & Pieter H M van Baal, 2011. "Cost-Effectiveness of Opportunistic Screening and Minimal Contact Psychotherapy to Prevent Depression in Primary Care Patients," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(8), pages 1-7, August.
    3. Ide, Hiroo & Mollahaliloglu, Salih, 2009. "How firms set prices for medical materials: A multi-country study," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 73-78, September.
    4. Eldon Spackman & Stewart Richmond & Mark Sculpher & Martin Bland & Stephen Brealey & Rhian Gabe & Ann Hopton & Ada Keding & Harriet Lansdown & Sara Perren & David Torgerson & Ian Watt & Hugh MacPherso, 2014. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Acupuncture, Counselling and Usual Care in Treating Patients with Depression: The Results of the ACUDep Trial," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(11), pages 1-12, November.
    5. Peele, Morgan & Wolf, Sharon, 2020. "Predictors of anxiety and depressive symptoms among teachers in Ghana: Evidence from a randomized controlled trial," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Carsten Hinrichsen & Vibeke Jenny Koushede & Katrine Rich Madsen & Line Nielsen & Nanna Gram Ahlmark & Ziggi Ivan Santini & Charlotte Meilstrup, 2020. "Implementing Mental Health Promotion Initiatives—Process Evaluation of the ABCs of Mental Health in Denmark," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-26, August.
    7. Gianni Tognoni & Alejandro Macchia, 2020. "Health as a Human Right: A Fake News in a Post-human World?," Development, Palgrave Macmillan;Society for International Deveopment, vol. 63(2), pages 270-276, December.
    8. Renske Kok & Mauricio Avendano & Teresa Bago d’Uva & Johan Mackenbach, 2012. "Can Reporting Heterogeneity Explain Differences in Depressive Symptoms Across Europe?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 105(2), pages 191-210, January.
    9. Emmanuel Peprah & Elisabet Caler & Anya Snyder & Fassil Ketema, 2020. "Deconstructing Syndemics: The Many Layers of Clustering Multi-Comorbidities in People Living with HIV," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-7, June.
    10. Qiumei Xu & Fangfen Yuan & Xuemei Shen & Hui Wen & Wei Li & Bei Cheng & Jing Wu, 2014. "Polymorphisms of C242T and A640G in CYBA Gene and the Risk of Coronary Artery Disease: A Meta-Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(1), pages 1-8, January.
    11. Hoehun Ha & Wei Tu, 2018. "An Ecological Study on the Spatially Varying Relationship between County-Level Suicide Rates and Altitude in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, April.
    12. Eduardo Martínez-Martínez & María Luisa Zaragoza & Elmer Solano & Brenda Figueroa & Patricia Zúñiga & Juan P Laclette, 2012. "Health Research Funding in Mexico: The Need for a Long-Term Agenda," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(12), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Zarish Noreen & Christopher A. Loffredo & Attya Bhatti & Jyothirmai J. Simhadri & Gail Nunlee-Bland & Thomas Nnanabu & Peter John & Jahangir S. Khan & Somiranjan Ghosh, 2020. "Transcriptional Profiling and Biological Pathway(s) Analysis of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Pakistani Population," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(16), pages 1-20, August.
    14. Joern Birkmann & Susan Cutter & Dale Rothman & Torsten Welle & Matthias Garschagen & Bas Ruijven & Brian O’Neill & Benjamin Preston & Stefan Kienberger & Omar Cardona & Tiodora Siagian & Deny Hidayati, 2015. "Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 53-68, November.
    15. Kimberley E Wever & Carlijn R Hooijmans & Niels P Riksen & Thomas B Sterenborg & Emily S Sena & Merel Ritskes-Hoitinga & Michiel C Warlé, 2015. "Determinants of the Efficacy of Cardiac Ischemic Preconditioning: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Animal Studies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-17, November.
    16. Junyan Teng & Yanping Wei & Fengming Su & Zhiping Guo & Jing-Quan Zhong, 2015. "Evaluating of Physiological Chemical Levels in Blood to Assess the Risk of Morbidity and Mortality of Ischemic Cardiovascular Disease," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-11, September.
    17. G. Guindon, 2014. "The impact of tobacco prices on smoking onset in Vietnam: duration analyses of retrospective data," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 15(1), pages 19-39, January.
    18. Jessica Pinaire & Jérôme Azé & Sandra Bringay & Guillaume Cayla & Paul Landais, 2019. "Hospital burden of coronary artery disease: Trends of myocardial infarction and/or percutaneous coronary interventions in France 2009–2014," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-21, May.
    19. Nuño, Roberto & Coleman, Katie & Bengoa, Rafael & Sauto, Regina, 2012. "Integrated care for chronic conditions: The contribution of the ICCC Framework," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 55-64.
    20. R. Mootanah & C.W. Imhauser & F. Reisse & D. Carpanen & R.W. Walker & M.F. Koff & M.W. Lenhoff & S.R. Rozbruch & A.T. Fragomen & Z. Dewan & Y.M. Kirane & K. Cheah & J.K. Dowell & H.J. Hillstrom, 2014. "Development and validation of a computational model of the knee joint for the evaluation of surgical treatments for osteoarthritis," Computer Methods in Biomechanics and Biomedical Engineering, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(13), pages 1502-1517, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csb:stintr:v:13:y:2012:i:2:p:405-418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Beata Witek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gusgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.