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Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force

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  • Frank T. Denton
  • Christine H. Feaver
  • Byron G. Spencer

Abstract

The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and the subsequent "baby bust," have cast a long shadow over the Canadian population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual simulations, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if things had been different - if there had been no baby boom, or no bust, or if the bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future, population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective "dependency burden."

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:28:y:2002:i:3:p:443-459
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1989. "Macro-effects of Changes in Household Preferences for Children: Simulated History and Future Time Paths," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 2(3), pages 165-188.
    2. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 1995. "The SHARP way to plan health care services: A description of the system and some illustrative applications in nursing human resource planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 125-137, June.
    3. Paul Beaudry & Thomas Lemieux & Daniel Parent, 2000. "What is Happening in the Youth Labour Market in Canada?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 59-83, July.
    4. Tim Dowd & Ralph Monaco & Jeffry Janoska, 1998. "Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 239-262.
    5. José Alvardo & John Creedy, 998. "Population Ageing, Migration and Social Expenditure," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1396.
    6. Frank Denton & Byron Spencer, 1999. "How old is old? Revising the definition based on life table criteria," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 147-159.
    7. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228, June.
    8. McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195.
    9. repec:bla:ausecr:v:38:y:2005:i:1:p:19-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Faini,Riccardo C. & de Melo,Jaime & Zimmermann,Klaus (ed.), 1999. "Migration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662338, October.
    11. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, April.
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    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 403, McMaster University.
    2. Joe Ruggeri & Yang Zou, 2006. "Measures of Fiscal Dependency," Public Finance Review, , vol. 34(4), pages 381-403, July.
    3. J.C. Herbert Emery & David Still & Tom Cottrell, 2012. "Can We Avoid a Sick Fiscal Future? The Non-Sustainability of Health-Care Spending on an Aging Population," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 5(31), October.

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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