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Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy

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  • Frank T Denton
  • Christine H Feaver
  • Byron G Spencer

Abstract

This report has two purposes: (1) to introduce a new version of the MEDS (Models of the Economic Demographic System) software; and (2) to apply it in a series of illustrative projections. The software is designed to illustrate the medium- to longer-term responses of the Canadian population and economy to a wide range of factors on either the demographic side, such as changes in rates of fertility, migration, and mortality, or the economic side, such as changes in the rate of technical progress or the educational attainment of young people or of new immigrants. "Standard" projections are provided, together with nineteen alternative projections. (For some illustrative projections, see http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/qsep.) The range of projections indicates the breadth of applications for which MEDS has been designed. It serves also to provide some quantitative measures of the likely demographic and economic consequences of population aging, and indicates the scope for evaluating policy initiatives by means of simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank T Denton & Christine H Feaver & Byron G Spencer, 2005. "Population Aging in Canada: Software for Exploring the Implications for the Labour Force and the Productive Capacity of the Economy," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 146, McMaster University.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcm:sedapp:146
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    File URL: http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/sedap/p/sedap146.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    2. Richard Easterlin, 1978. "What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 15(4), pages 397-432, November.
    3. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 1996. "The Future Population of Canada and Its Age Distribution," Independence and Economic Security of the Older Population Research Papers 3, McMaster University.
    4. Becker, Gary S, 1992. "Fertility and the Economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 5(3), pages 185-201, August.
    5. F.T. Denton & B.G. Spencer, 1996. "Population Aging and the Maintenance of Social Support Systems," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 320, McMaster University.
    6. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Population, Labour Force and Long-term Economic Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 336, McMaster University.
    7. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1997. "Demographic Trends, Labour Force Participation, and Long-term Growth," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 334, McMaster University.
    8. Frank T. Denton, 2004. "Exploring the Use of a Nonparametrically Generated Instrumental Variable in the Estimation of a Linear Parametric Equation," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 390, McMaster University.
    9. Candace L. Kemp & Carolyn J. Rosenthal & Margaret Denton, 2004. "Financial Planning for Later Life: Subjective Understandings of Catalysts and Constraints," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 118, McMaster University.
    10. Faini,Riccardo C. & de Melo,Jaime & Zimmermann,Klaus (ed.), 1999. "Migration," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521662338, January.
    11. Candace L. Kemp & Carolyn J. Rosenthal & Margaret Denton, 2004. "Financial Planning for Later Life: Subjective Understandings of Catalysts and Constraints," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 389, McMaster University.
    12. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Denton, Frank T & Spencer, Byron G, 1973. "A Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Population Change on a Neoclassical Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 356-375, Part I, M.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nabil Annabi & Maxime Fougère & Simon Harvey, 2009. "Inter‐temporal and Inter‐industry Effects of Population Ageing: A General Equilibrium Assessment for Canada," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 23(4), pages 609-651, December.
    2. Margaret Denton & Karen Kusch, 2006. "Well-Being Throughout the Senior Years: An Issues Paper on Key Events and Transitions in Later Life," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 411, McMaster University.
    3. Isik U. Zeytinoglu & Margaret Denton, 2006. "Satisfied Workers, Retained Workers: Effects of Work and Work Environment on Homecare Workers' Job Satisfaction, Stress, Physical Health, and Retention," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 412, McMaster University.
    4. Margaret Denton & Linda Boos, 2007. "Gender Inequality in the Wealth of Older Canadians," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 413, McMaster University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    population; labour force; economy; projection system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C88 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Other Computer Software

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