IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/lev/wrkpap/wp_471.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Shripad Tuljapurkar

Abstract

This paper describes how stochastic population forecasts are used to inform and analyze policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. The paper first presents methods for making probabilistic forecasts of demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, and shows how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts of population number and composition, using forecasts of the U.S. population by way of illustration. Next, the paper discusses how demographic models and economic models can be combined into an integrated projection model of transfer systems such as social security. Finally, the paper shows how these integrated models describe various dimensions of policy-relevant risk, and discusses the nature and implications of risk in evaluating policy alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2006. "Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_471, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_471
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_471.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228, June.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    3. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, December.
    4. Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High‐Income Countries, 1955–96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. I. Bryzhan & V. Chevhanova & Î. Hryhoryeva & L. Svystun, 2020. "Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 2, pages 21-42.
    2. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Myšičková, Alena, 2009. "Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-009, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frank T. Denton & Christine H. Feaver & Byron G. Spencer, 2002. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of the Effects of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour Force," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 28(3), pages 443-459, September.
    2. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
    3. Tomas, Julien & Planchet, Frédéric, 2015. "Prospective mortality tables: Taking heterogeneity into account," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 169-190.
    4. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1998. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population Research Reports 339, McMaster University.
    5. Palacios, Robert, 2006. "Civil-service pension schemes around the world," MPRA Paper 14796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jan Dirk Vlasblom & Joop J. Schippers, 2004. "Increases in Female Labour Force Participation in Europe: Similarities and Differences," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 375-392, December.
    7. Yi-Chuan Chang & Jui-Chung Allen Li, 2011. "Trends and Educational Differentials in Marriage Formation Among Taiwanese Women," Working Papers WR-891, RAND Corporation.
    8. Ahbab Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Stefano Mazzuco, 2021. "Mortality Forecasting with the Lee–Carter Method: Adjusting for Smoothing and Lifespan Disparity," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 97-120, March.
    9. Alvaro Forteza, 1998. "Los efectos de la Reforma uruguaya de la Seguridad Social en el ahorro," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1098, Department of Economics - dECON.
    10. Disney, Richard & Whitehouse, Edward, 1999. "Pension plans and retirement incentives," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 20851, The World Bank.
    11. Mark W. Rosenberg, 2000. "The Effects of Population Ageing on the Canadian Health Care System," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 14, McMaster University.
    12. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Vassilis Tselios, 2010. "Inequalities in income and education and regional economic growth in western Europe," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(2), pages 349-375, April.
    13. Richard Disney, 2003. "Public Pension Reform in Europe: Policies, Prospects and Evaluation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(10), pages 1425-1445, November.
    14. McNally, B. & Stewart, J., 2003. "Occupational Pension Schemes in Ireland: A Review of Risk and Investment Strategies," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1281003, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    15. Ryan D Edwards & Jennifer Roff, 2010. "Negative Effects of Paternal Age on Children's Neurocognitive Outcomes Can Be Explained by Maternal Education and Number of Siblings," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(9), pages 1-9, September.
    16. Feng, Lingbing & Shi, Yanlin & Chang, Le, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with a hyperbolic spatial temporal VAR model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 255-273.
    17. Giuseppe Carone & Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Gilles Mourre & Werner Röger, 2006. "Long-term labour productivity and GDP projections for the EU25 Member States : a production function framework," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 253, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2000. "Rentabilitätsvergleiche im Umlage- und Kapitaldeckungsverfahren : Konzepte, empirische Ergebnisse, sozialpolitische Konsequenzen," Discussion Papers 585, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    19. Mészáros, József, 2005. "A társadalombiztosítási nyugdíjrendszerek mint közjószágok [Social-insurance pension systems as public goods]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 275-288.
    20. Wang, Xinxin & Chen, Kevin & Huang, Zuhui, 2013. "The Impact of China's Demographic Transition on Economic Growth and Income Distribution: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151276, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Elizabeth Dunn The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Elizabeth Dunn to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.levyinstitute.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.