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Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk

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  • Shripad Tuljapurkar

Abstract

This paper describes how stochastic population forecasts are used to inform and analyze policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. The paper first presents methods for making probabilistic forecasts of demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, and shows how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts of population number and composition, using forecasts of the U.S. population by way of illustration. Next, the paper discusses how demographic models and economic models can be combined into an integrated projection model of transfer systems such as social security. Finally, the paper shows how these integrated models describe various dimensions of policy-relevant risk, and discusses the nature and implications of risk in evaluating policy alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2006. "Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_471, Levy Economics Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ron Lesthaeghe & Paul Willems, 1999. "Is Low Fertility a Temporary Phenomenon in the European Union?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 25(2), pages 211-228, June.
    2. Richard Disney, 1996. "Can We Afford to Grow Older?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026204157x, December.
    3. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    4. Kevin M. White, 2002. "Longevity Advances in High‐Income Countries, 1955–96," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 59-76, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. I. Bryzhan & V. Chevhanova & Î. Hryhoryeva & L. Svystun, 2020. "Approaches to forecasting demography trends in the management of integrated area development," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 2, pages 21-42.
    2. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Myšičková, Alena, 2009. "Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2009-009, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.

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