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Shocks de precios y términos de intercambio para commodities: el caso de Ecuador

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  • Ricardo Andrés Troncoso Sepúlveda

Abstract

Recientes trabajos han recomendado el uso de medidas de precios mundiales más desagregadas en la formulación de modelos empíricos y teóricos sobre ciclos de negocio, con lo cual han desafiado la hipótesis de que shocks a los términos de intercambio (TOT) son una fuente importante de fluctuaciones cíclicas en economías emergentes. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el impacto sobre los ciclos económicos de shocks a precios de commodities y evaluar la capacidad de los TOT como proxy en modelos teóricos. Utilizando datos anuales para Ecuador, se estimó un SVAR en el cual múltiples precios transmiten las perturbaciones mundiales y un modelo MX con shocks exógenos a los TOT. Los resultados muestran que los shocks explican entre el 23 % y el 37 % de las fluctuaciones en variables macroeconómicas domésticas, y que los términos de intercambio para commodities (CTOT) presentan el mejor rendimiento en el modelo MX en relación con una especificación empírica benchmark. Estos resultados corroboran la importancia de los shocks a precios de commodities, a la vez que revitalizan el rol de los TOT.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Andrés Troncoso Sepúlveda, 2022. "Shocks de precios y términos de intercambio para commodities: el caso de Ecuador," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 14(1), pages 75-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:020545
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    Cited by:

    1. Flechtner, Svenja & Middelanis, Martin, 2024. "The role of the commodity price boom in shaping public social spending: Evidence from Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclos económicos; precio decommodities; shocks; términos de intercambio.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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