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Impactos indirectos de la tasa de cambio y los precios del petróleo en una economía no petrolera: aproximaciones VECM y VAR para el Valle del Cauca, Colombia

Author

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  • Juan Manuel Candelo Viafara

Abstract

Este artículo forma parte de literatura poco explorada y busca identificar la relación entre el precio del petróleo y la tasa de cambio real en una economía pequena, abierta y regional del departamento del Valle del Cauca, en Colombia. Se utilizan vectores de corrección de errores (VECM) y vectores autorregresivos (VAR) con datos mensuales entre 2001 y 2015. Los resultados identifican que un impulso de la tasa de cambio real genera impactos positivos, mientras que un impulso del precio del petróleo origina efectos negativos y asimétricos en la economía, debido a la pérdida de competitividad de la industria y al deterioro del consumo.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Manuel Candelo Viafara, 2018. "Impactos indirectos de la tasa de cambio y los precios del petróleo en una economía no petrolera: aproximaciones VECM y VAR para el Valle del Cauca, Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 10(2), pages 403-436, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000443:016932
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    File URL: https://editorial.ucatolica.edu.co/ojsucatolica/revistas_ucatolica/index.php/RFYPE/article/view/2159/2198
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    2. Julio César Alonso & Carlos Ignacio Patiño F Author-Email:carlos.patino@corficolombiana.com.co, 2007. "¿Crecer para exportar o exportar para crecer? El caso del Valle del Cauca," Ensayos sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 46, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2002. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 27-52.
    4. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks And Stock Market Booms In An Oil Exporting Country," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(2), pages 232-254, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viáfara & Carlos Hernán Gonzáles-Campo, 2022. "Efecto de la incertidumbre en las organizaciones del mercado accionario: una herramienta para la toma de decisiones y la inteligencia organizacional," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 38(162), pages 57-68, March.
    2. Juan Manuel Candelo-Viafara & Andrés Oviedo-Gómez, 2021. "La tasa de cambio y sus impactos en los agregados económicos colombianos: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada, vol. 29(2), pages 121-142, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cointegración; enfermedad holandesa; precios del petróleo; tasa de cambio real; VAR; VECM;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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