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Trimestralización del Producto Interno Bruto en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Mauricio Carrizosa
  • Germán Botero

Abstract

“Diversas razones justifican la conveniencia de contar con indicadores trimestrales de la actividad económica. Pueden senalarse por lo menos tres de ellas. En primer término, la información de corto plazo obvia mente permite un seguimiento más frecuente de la evolución de la actividad económica, lo cual es conveniente para la formulación de la política económica y empresarial, al poder precisarse mejor los momentos en que ocurren cambios en el ritmo de la producción. En segundo término, la información trimestral es también más oportuna. Usualmente, los indicadores de corto plazo están disponibles antes que los indicadores que sirven de base para los cálculos anuales definitivos de producción, de suerte que los primeros pueden permitir una evaluación más rápida del desempeno sectorial y global. Finalmente, la disponibilidad de estimativos trimestrales amplia significativamente el acopio de información para desarrollar análisis económicos. Con datos trimestrales se puede, por ejemplo, establecer con mayor precisión la longitud de los retardos que supuestamente existen entre las políticas macroeconómicas y la producción y los precios. Dos problemas fundamentales corresponde abordar cuando se trata de trimestralizar la actividad económica. En primer término, se debe emplear un análisis de regresión para vincular los valores anuales del PIB a indicadores disponibles trimestralmente. En segundo término, corresponde definir un procedimiento para distribuir el error que emerge entre las cifras obtenidas a partir de las ecuaciones estimadas, y los datos anuales originales. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es la definición correcta de este procedimiento.”

Suggested Citation

  • Mauricio Carrizosa & Germán Botero, 1984. "Trimestralización del Producto Interno Bruto en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 14(4), pages 119-127, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013966
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2525
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Victor A. Ginsburgh, 1973. "A Further Note on the Derivation of Quarterly Figures Consistent with Annual Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 22(3), pages 368-374, November.
    2. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    3. Fernandez, Roque B, 1981. "A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 63(3), pages 471-476, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informes de Investigación; Cuentas Nacionales; Producto Interno Bruto; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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