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Diversificación productiva y cambio estructural en economías cerradas y abiertas

Author

Listed:
  • Ortiz, Carlos Humberto
  • Jiménez, Diana Marcela
  • Jaramillo, María Liliam

Abstract

Resumen: La diversificación productiva ha sido el principal determinante del cambio estructural de las economías. Esta hipótesis se analiza para nueve países bajo un régimen comercial relativamente cerrado, y para nueve países latinoamericanos bajo un régimen comercial relativamente abierto frente a Estados Unidos. Se contrastan las ecuaciones del cambio estructural que se deducen de un modelo multisectorial y dinámico de equilibrio económico general. Para las economías cerradas no se rechaza la hipótesis de que la diversificación productiva se relaciona negativamente con la contribución del sector primario al producto: la mayor diversificación aumenta la productividad relativa de las actividades manufactureras. Para las economías abiertas no se rechaza la hipótesis de que las ventajas comparativas del país inciden en la asignación relativa de recursos para el sector agrícola: la productividad agrícola relativa incide positivamente, la dotación relativa del capital fijo incide negativamente y la tasa de cambio real incide positivamente. En este último caso, se postula que una baja diversificación productiva induce el deterioro de los términos de intercambio, lo que favorece la especialización en actividades primarias. Abstract: Productive diversification has been the main determinant of structural change of the economies. This hypothesis is analysed for nine countries under a relatively closed trade regime, and for nine Latin American countries under a relatively open trade regime with the United States. The equations of structural change that are tested are derived from a multisector dynamic general equilibrium model. The negative impact of productive diversification on the relative allocation of resources to the primary sector cannot be rejected for closed economies: greater diversification increases the relative productivity of manufacturing activities. The impact of a country’s comparative advantages on the allocation of resources to agriculture cannot be rejected: the relative agricultural productivity has a positive impact; the relative capital endowment has a negative impact; and the real exchange rate has a positive impact. In the last case, it is argued that low diversification induces a deterioration in the terms of trade, which favours specialization in primary activities

Suggested Citation

  • Ortiz, Carlos Humberto & Jiménez, Diana Marcela & Jaramillo, María Liliam, 2019. "Diversificación productiva y cambio estructural en economías cerradas y abiertas," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 91, pages 1-29, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:017446
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    diversificación productiva; cambio estructural; desarrollo económico; crecimiento económico; régimen comercial;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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