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Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012

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  • Campo, Jacobo
  • Mendoza, Henry

Abstract

Resumen La literatura empírica presenta diversos resultados acerca del impacto que tiene el gasto público sobre el producto interno bruto (PIB) de los países en general. Este artículo presenta evidencia sobre el impacto que tiene dicho gasto sobre el PIB en 24 departamentos de Colombia, durante el periodo 1984-2012. Además, se aplica una prueba de causalidad con datos de panel con el fin de determinar si la relación se sustenta mediante el enfoque keynesiano o el enfoque wagneriano. A través de un modelo de datos de panel cointegrado, se obtiene esta relación y se estiman los coeficientes de la relación de equilibrio de largo plazo. Los resultados muestran un efecto positivo y significativo del gasto público primario sobre el PIB, lo cual va en la vía del enfoque keynesiano y confirma la hipótesis de que aumentos en el gasto público contribuyen al crecimiento económico. Abstract: The empirical literature shows mixed results regarding the impact of public spending on the gross domestic product (GDP) of countries in general. This paper presents evidence on the impact of public spending on regional GDP in 24 departments of Colombia, during the period 1984-2012. In addition, we apply a causality test with panel data with the aim to determine whether this relationship is supported by the Keynesian approach or the Wagnerian approach. Using a model of cointegrated panel data, we obtain the long-run equilibrium relationship and estimate its coefficients. The results show a significant and positive effect of primary public spending on GDP, which is in line with the Keynesian approach and confirms the hypothesis that increases in public spending contribute to economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Campo, Jacobo & Mendoza, Henry, 2018. "Gasto público y crecimiento económico: un análisis regional para Colombia, 1984-2012," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 88, pages 77-108, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:016023
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    gasto público; enfoque keynesiano; ley de Wagner; datos de panel; cointegración; causalidad de Granger; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General

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