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Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda

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  • SERGIO CLAVIJO VERGARA

Abstract

En este documento se pasa revista a la situación fiscal y la fuente de sus desequilibrios. Se cotejan las necesidades de ahorro primario con las futuras cargas que representan las deudas contingentes provenientes de las garantías públicas y, principalmente, las obligaciones pensionales, equivalentes a gastos adicionales por cerca de 1% del producto interno bruto (PIB) en cada ano. La conclusión fundamental es que el país requiere continuar avanzando en sus reformas estructurales de segunda generación, de tal manera que se consolide la meta de superávit primarios del 3% del PIB. Sin embargo, hay menos optimismo sobre sus efectos de disminución rápida del nivel de endeudamiento, debido a la carga que ejercerán estas deudas contingentes. En efecto, el alivio en el esfuerzo fiscal que provee las mejores perspectivas de crecimiento económico (4% anual) y las menores tasas de interés, tenderá a ser compensado por estas mayores cargas no incluidas en la relación deuda pública explícita / PIB.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Clavijo Vergara, 2004. "Requisitos Para La Estabilidad Fiscal: Un Balance Y La Agenda," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(46-1), pages 146-185, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:003456
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.46-103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cardona Bermeo, Jorge Enrique, 2002. "Manejo de pasivos contingentes en el marco de la disciplina fiscal en Colombia," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 34872, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hernán Rincón & Jorge Ramos & Ignacio Lozano, 2004. "Crisis Fiscal Actual: Diagnóstico y Recomendaciones," Borradores de Economia 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DEUDA PÚBLICA; LATINOAMÉRICA;

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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