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Tratados de Libre Comercio y duración de las exportaciones: Evidencia a nivel de firma para Colombia

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  • Margalida Murillo
  • Cindy Paola Leal

Abstract

Este artículo analiza la incidencia de los tratados de libre comercio (TLC) sobre la duración de las exportaciones en Colombia. Con datos a nivel de firma producto-destino se estimaron modelos de duración en tiempo discreto que permitieron identificar que los TLC inciden negativamente en la probabilidad de cese de las relaciones comerciales activas antes de la entrada en vigor del acuerdo, sin embargo, aumentan el riesgo de salida de aquellas que comienzan después del acuerdo. Este doble efecto es robusto para distintos tipos de productos e, incluso, para exportaciones con certificado de origen. No obstante, las incursiones de firmas que cuentan con al menos un ano de experiencia en el sector exportador comportan mayores perspectivas de duración. Se concluye que el rol del aprendizaje y del conocimiento adquirido es clave en el propósito de lograr un mejor aprovechamiento de los acuerdos y maximizar las probabilidades de éxito de las incursiones en los países con TLC.

Suggested Citation

  • Margalida Murillo & Cindy Paola Leal, 2021. "Tratados de Libre Comercio y duración de las exportaciones: Evidencia a nivel de firma para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 88(6), pages 201-238, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:019414
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    File URL: https://revistas.uniandes.edu.co/doi/pdf/10.13043/DYS.88.6
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    acuerdo internacional; comercio internacional; empresa; aprendizaje; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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