IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v88y2020i2p204-224.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Explaining Export Duration in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Majune Kraido Socrates
  • Eliud Moyi
  • Kamau Gathiaka

Abstract

This study establishes the hazard rate of exports from Kenya and identifies factors that explain the duration of exports using a discrete‐time random effects logit regression model. A difference‐in‐differences estimator is used to assess the effects of AGOA. Export data between Kenya and 176 partners over 21 years (1995–2016) is used. We find that first‐year survival rate is 39%. The median duration of Kenya’s exports is 1 year. AGOA enhances export survival, especially for apparels. COMESA also increases export survival but EAC has a dampening effect, even in SSA region. Differentiated products unlike capital‐intensive products improve export survival.

Suggested Citation

  • Majune Kraido Socrates & Eliud Moyi & Kamau Gathiaka, 2020. "Explaining Export Duration in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 204-224, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:88:y:2020:i:2:p:204-224
    DOI: 10.1111/saje.12243
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12243
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/saje.12243?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cadot, Olivier & Iacovone, Leonardo & Pierola, Martha Denisse & Rauch, Ferdinand, 2013. "Success and failure of African exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 284-296.
    2. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner, 2013. "Greasing the wheels? The impact of regulations and corruption on firm entry," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 413-432, June.
    3. Rishav Bista & Rebecca Tomasik, 2017. "Time Zone Effect and the Margins of Exports," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1053-1067, June.
    4. Edwards, Sebastian & Johnson, Simon & Weil, David N. (ed.), 2016. "African Successes, Volume III," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226315720, September.
    5. Holger Görg & Marina-Eliza Spaliara, 2014. "Financial Health, Exports and Firm Survival: Evidence from UK and French Firms," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(323), pages 419-444, July.
    6. Melise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2015. "Financial Development and Sustainable Exports: Evidence from Firm-product Data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(7), pages 1090-1114, July.
    7. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    8. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2006. "Product differentiation and duration of US import trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 339-358, December.
    9. Marco Fugazza & Alain McLaren, 2014. "Market Access, Export Performance and Survival: Evidence from Peruvian Firms," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 599-624, August.
    10. Volker Nitsch, 2009. "Die another day: duration in German import trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 133-154, April.
    11. Garth Frazer & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2010. "Trade Growth under the African Growth and Opportunity Act," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 128-144, February.
    12. Rauch, James E., 1999. "Networks versus markets in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 7-35, June.
    13. Holger Görg & Richard Kneller & Balázs Muraközy, 2012. "What makes a successful export? Evidence from firm‐product‐ level data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 1332-1368, November.
    14. Besedes, Tibor & Prusa, Thomas J., 2011. "The role of extensive and intensive margins and export growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 371-379, November.
    15. Rauch, James E. & Watson, Joel, 2003. "Starting small in an unfamiliar environment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 1021-1042, September.
    16. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    17. Ana Margarida Fernandes & Hibret Maemir & Aaditya Mattoo & Alejandro Forero, 2019. "Are trade preferences a panacea? The African growth and opportunity act and African exports," CESifo Working Paper Series 7672, CESifo.
    18. Raymond Vernon, 1966. "International Investment and International Trade in the Product Cycle," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 80(2), pages 190-207.
    19. Fernandes, Ana M. & Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2016. "Exporter behavior, country size and stage of development: Evidence from the exporter dynamics database," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 121-137.
    20. Paul Brenton & Christian Saborowski & Erik von Uexkull, 2014. "What Explains the Low Survival Rate of Developing Country Export Flows?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: INTERNATIONAL TRADE, DISTRIBUTION AND DEVELOPMENT Empirical Studies of Trade Policies, chapter 17, pages 347-372, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Zakaria Sorgho & Joe Tharakan, 2019. "Assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies EBA and AGOA on African beneficiaries' exports using matching econometrics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 3086-3118, October.
    22. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2010. "Multiple-Product Firms and Product Switching," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 70-97, March.
    23. Paul Brenton & Olivier Cadot & Martha Denisse Pierola, 2012. "Pathways to African Export Sustainability," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 9380.
    24. Besedeš, Tibor & Kim, Byung-Cheol & Lugovskyy, Volodymyr, 2014. "Export growth and credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 350-370.
    25. Timoshenko, Olga A., 2015. "Product switching in a model of learning," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 233-249.
    26. Tomohiko Inui & Keiko Ito & Daisuke Miyakawa, 2017. "Export Experience, Product Differentiation and Firm Survival in Export Markets," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 217-231, June.
    27. Tibor Besedeš & Thomas J. Prusa, 2006. "Ins, outs, and the duration of trade," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 266-295, February.
    28. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    29. David Córcoles & Carmen Díaz-Mora & Rosario Gandoy, 2015. "Export Survival in Global Production Chains," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1526-1554, October.
    30. Daniel Goya & Andrés Zahler, 2019. "Distance from core competences and new export survival: Evidence from multi‐product exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(11), pages 3253-3286, November.
    31. Yaqiong Cui & Bin Liu, 2018. "Manufacturing servitisation and duration of exports in China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 1695-1721, June.
    32. Hess Wolfgang & Tutz Gerhard & Gertheiss Jan, 2016. "A Flexible Link Function for Discrete-Time Duration Models," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(4), pages 455-481, August.
    33. Peter K. Schott, 2004. "Across-Product Versus Within-Product Specialization in International Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 647-678.
    34. Türkcan, Kemal & Saygılı, Hülya, 2018. "Economic Integration Agreements and the Survival of Exports," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(1), pages 1046-1095.
    35. Sebastian Edwards & Simon Johnson & David N. Weil, 2016. "African Successes, Volume III: Modernization and Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number afri14-3.
    36. Türkcan, Kemal & Saygılı, Hülya, 2018. "Economic Integration Agreements and the Survival of Exports," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 33(1), pages 1046-1095.
    37. Dahai Fu & Yanrui Wu, 2014. "Export survival pattern and its determinants: an empirical study of Chinese manufacturing firms," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(1), pages 161-177, May.
    38. Lawrence Edwards & Peter W. Chacha, 2017. "The growth dynamics of new export entrants in Kenya: a Survival Analysis," Working Papers 712, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    39. Joakim Gullstrand & Maria Persson, 2015. "How to combine high sunk costs of exporting and low export survival," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(1), pages 23-51, February.
    40. Kassa,Woubet & Coulibaly,Souleymane, 2019. "Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act : A Synthetic Control Approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8993, The World Bank.
    41. Kemal Türkcan & Hülya Saygili, 2019. "Global Production Chains and Export Survival," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 103-129, March.
    42. Everett B Peterson & Jason H Grant & Jeta Rudi-Polloshka, 2018. "Survival of the Fittest: Export Duration and Failure into United States Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 23-45.
    43. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2012. "The duration of trade revisited," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 1083-1107, December.
    44. Xuechang Zhu & Bin Liu & Qian Wei, 2019. "Does participation in global value chains extend export duration?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 1282-1308, August.
    45. Sorgho, Zakaria & Tharakan, Joe, 2019. "Assessing the impact of unilateral trade policies EBA and AGOA on African beneficiaries' exports using matching econometrics," LIDAM Reprints CORE 3087, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Konstantīns Beņkovskis & Peter Jarrett & Ze’ev Krill & Oļegs Tkačevs & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2024. "Aim high, shoot low? Product complexity and export survival in Latvia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 185-207, February.
    2. Konstantins Benkovskis & Peter Jarrett & Ze'ev Krill & Olegs Tkacevs & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2022. "The Survival of Latvian Products and Firms in Export Markets," Working Papers 2022/02, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Helena Afonso & Sebastian Vergara, 2022. "Exporters in Africa: What Role for Trade Costs?," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 144-158, December.
    4. Kemal Türkcan & Socrates Majune Kraido & Eliud Moyi, 2022. "Export margins and survival: A firm‐level analysis using Kenyan data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(2), pages 149-174, June.
    5. Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Elena Kuzmenko & Joseph Phiri & Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Mansoor Maitah & Luboš Smutka & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Karel Tomšík & Sylvi, 2023. "Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
    6. Wen Yue & Qingxia Lin, 2023. "Export duration and firm markups: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Joseph Phiri & Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková & Mansoor Maitah & Kamil Maitah & Patricia Naluwooza, 2021. "Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Adou, Niango Sika Brice, 2021. "Global Value Chain in West Africa, does trade facilitation matters?," Conference papers 333257, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Majune, Socrates Kraido & Türkcan, Kemal, 2022. "COVID-19 vs. GFC: A firm-level trade margins analysis using Kenyan data," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2022-6, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    10. Chacha, Peter Wankuru & Kirui, Benard Kipyegon & Wiedemann, Verena, 2024. "Supply Chains in Times of Crisis: Evidence from Kenya’s Production Network," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    11. Kwabena Nkansah & Paul Owusu Takyi & Daniel Sakyi & Frank Adusah-Poku, 2022. "Economic Integration Agreements and Export Survival in Ghana," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    12. Kemal Türkcan & Socrates Kraido Majune, 2022. "Logistics infrastructure and export survival in European Union countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 509-535, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pişkin, Erhan, 2017. "Türkiye İhracatının Ölüm-Kalım Meselesi [The Matter of Survival for Turkish Exports]," MPRA Paper 81459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Zou, Zongsen & Zhang, Yu & Li, Xin & Wang, Xiuling, 2023. "The nexus between product sophistication and export survival: Evidence from China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 480-502.
    3. Luis Felipe Beltrán Morales, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Export Survival from Latin American Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Kemal Türkcan & Socrates Majune Kraido & Eliud Moyi, 2022. "Export margins and survival: A firm‐level analysis using Kenyan data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 90(2), pages 149-174, June.
    5. MAJUNE, Socrates, 2015. "A discrete time analysis of export duration in Kenya: 1995 -2014," MPRA Paper 68727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Margalida Murillo & Cindy Paola Leal, 2021. "Tratados de Libre Comercio y duración de las exportaciones: Evidencia a nivel de firma para Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 88(6), pages 201-238, July.
    7. Joseph Phiri & Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Sylvie Kobzev Kotásková & Mansoor Maitah & Kamil Maitah & Patricia Naluwooza, 2021. "Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, January.
    8. Konstantīns Beņkovskis & Peter Jarrett & Ze’ev Krill & Oļegs Tkačevs & Naomitsu Yashiro, 2024. "Aim high, shoot low? Product complexity and export survival in Latvia," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 185-207, February.
    9. Laura D'Amato & Máximo Sangiácomo & Martin Tobal, 2020. "Export survival and foreign financing," BIS Working Papers 877, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa & Carrère, Céline, 2014. "Developing Countries Exports Survival in the OECD: Does Experience Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10059, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Bojnec, Štefan & Fertő, Imre, 2018. "Economic Crisis and the Fragility of Comparative Advantage in European Agriculture," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 67(3), September.
    12. Karel Malec & Socrates Kraido Majune & Elena Kuzmenko & Joseph Phiri & Rahab Liz Masese Nyamoita & Seth Nana Kwame Appiah-Kubi & Mansoor Maitah & Luboš Smutka & Zdeňka Gebeltová & Karel Tomšík & Sylvi, 2023. "Energy Logistic Regression and Survival Model: Case Study of Russian Exports," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. Shiguang Peng & Le Wang & Lei Xu, 2024. "Impact of non‐tariff measures on the survival of China's fresh fruit exports," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 38(1), pages 145-170, May.
    14. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez, 2021. "Previous experience, experimentation and export survival: Evidence from firm‐product‐destination level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2638-2682, September.
    15. Mélise Jaud & Madina Kukenova & Martin Strieborny, 2009. "Financial dependence and intensive margin of trade," PSE Working Papers halshs-00575005, HAL.
    16. Besedes, Tibor, 2011. "Export differentiation in transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 25-44, March.
    17. Yang, Bixuan & Asche, Frank & Anderson, James L., 2019. "Trade dynamics and duration of Chinese food imports," 2019 Annual Meeting, July 21-23, Atlanta, Georgia 291085, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Türkcan, Kemal, 2016. "On the role of vertical differentiation in enhancing survival of export flows: Evidence from a developing country," MPRA Paper 71023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Wolfgang Hess & Maria Persson, 2011. "Exploring the duration of EU imports," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(4), pages 665-692, November.
    20. Yangyuyu Luo & Sayeeda Bano, 2020. "Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(3), pages 605-631, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:88:y:2020:i:2:p:204-224. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.