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Forecasting Tourist Arrivals To Langkawi Island Malaysia

Author

Listed:
  • Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR

    (Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Kedah, Malaysia)

  • Wan Irham ISHAK

    (Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Kedah, Malaysia)

Abstract

Tourism is the act of travelling for a person or group of people from their own locality to a specific destination in a short term or long term period either for leisure or business purposes. Tourism is an important sector in the Malaysian economy where tourism development will lead to the positive economic development of the country and in general improve the quality of life for all citizens. Therefore, forecasting tourist arrivals with high accuracy becomes important since it may ensure the development and the readiness of all tourism related industries such as hotels, transportation, food and services industries and their best shape. This study focuses on tourist arrivals in Langkawi Island as one of the major tourist attractions situated in the northerly region of Peninsular Malaysia. Importantly, this paper attempts to measure and compare the performance of forecasting with Exponential Smoothing, ARIMA and ARFIMA models using the R software package.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamarul Ariffin MANSOR & Wan Irham ISHAK, 2015. "Forecasting Tourist Arrivals To Langkawi Island Malaysia," CrossCultural Management Journal, Fundația Română pentru Inteligența Afacerii, Editorial Department, issue 1, pages 69-76, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmj:journl:y:2015:i:7:p:69-76
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
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    Cited by:

    1. Hasrina Mustafa & Fahri Ahmed & Waffa Wahida Zainol & Azlizan Mat Enh, 2021. "Forecasting the Impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on International Tourist Arrivals to Langkawi, Malaysia: A PostCOVID-19 Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Gabriela Arionesei & Cristian-Valentin Hapenciuc & Mihai Costea, 2016. "Statistical Confrontation of the Evolution of Tourism in the North East Region in Comparison with the other Regions of Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(S10), pages 798-798, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tourist Arrivals; Forecasting; Time Series; Exponential Smoothing; ARIMA; ARFIMA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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