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Do South-South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity-level evidence from COMESA

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  • Anna Maria Mayda
  • Chad Steinberg

Abstract

South-South trade agreements are proliferating. Yet the impact of these agreements is largely unknown, as existing North-North and North-South micro-level studies are likely to yield misleading predictions for South-South trade agreements. This paper estimates the impact of COMESA on Uganda's imports between 1994 and 2003. Detailed import and tariff data at the 6-digit Harmonized System level are used for more than 1,000 commodities. Based on a difference-in-difference estimation strategy, the paper finds that - in contrast to evidence from aggregate statistics - COMESA's preferential tariff liberalization has not considerably increased Uganda's trade with member countries, on average, across sectors. The effect, however, is heterogeneous across sectors. Finally, the paper finds no evidence of trade-diversion effects.

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  • Anna Maria Mayda & Chad Steinberg, 2009. "Do South-South trade agreements increase trade? Commodity-level evidence from COMESA," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1361-1389, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:42:y:2009:i:4:p:1361-1389
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01548.x
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    2. Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2013. "Preferential trade agreements and manufactured goods exports: does it matter whom you PTA with?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(34), pages 4754-4772, December.
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    7. Athukorala, Prema-Chandra, 2011. "South-South Trade: An Asian Perspective," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 265, Asian Development Bank.
    8. Lisa Borgatti, 2011. "Economic Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 20, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Shadrack Muthami Mwatu & Charity Kageni Mbaka & John Gakuu Karanja & Grace Mukami Muriithi, 2024. "Trade Agreements, Technical Regulations, and Standards: Competitiveness Implications for Kenyan Exporters to European Union," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(2), pages 381-410, April.
    10. Diadié Diaw & Albert Lessoua, 2013. "Natural Resources Exports, Diversification and Economic Growth of CEMAC Countries: On the Impact of Trade with China," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 189-202, June.
    11. Kareem, Olayinka Idowu, 2011. "The Effects of the European Union.s and China.s Trade Agreements on Africa.s Exports," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. Stender, Frederik & Vogel, Tim, 2021. "Murky trade waters: Regional tariff commitments and non-tariff measures in Africa," IDOS Discussion Papers 13/2021, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
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    14. Strutt, Anna, 2008. "Dynamic Analysis of a BIMSTEC-Japan Free Trade Area," Conference papers 331715, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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