IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/chb/bcchni/v16y2013i1p100-121.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?

Author

Listed:
  • Ercio Muñoz S.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the emerging economies sovereign spread, with emphasis on the impact of commodity prices. Using a panel data model, it tests the heterogeneity of this relationship, depending on the degree of exports concentration and distinguishes the impact of global activity on sovereign risk. The main results are that raw materials prices measured by the GSCI index has a significant impact on the sovereign spread, which is heterogeneous and it is reinforced through export concentration measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschmann index. Also, sovereign spreads responds to movements in global activity, captured by OCDE global leading indicator. These results are robust to the use of the share of raw materials over total exports replacing Herfindahl-Hirschmann and world industrial production replacing global leading indicator.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ercio Muñoz S., 2013. "Precio de Materias Primas y Spread Soberano en Economías Emergentes ¿Importa la Concentración de las Exportaciones?," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 100-121, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchni:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:100-121
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://si2.bcentral.cl/public/pdf/revista-economia/2013/abr/recv16n1abr2013pp100-121.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants Of Spread , Credit Rating And Creditworthiness For Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 2336, Banco de la Republica.
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    3. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    4. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    6. Julio Nogués & Martín Grandes, 2001. "COUNTRY RISK: Economic Policy, Contagion Effect or Political noise?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 125-162, May.
    7. Christian Daude & Ángel Melguizo & Alejandro Neut, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and Sustainable at Last?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 291, OECD Publishing.
    8. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    9. Ms. Laura E. Kodres & Kristian Hartelius & Kenichiro Kashiwase, 2008. "Emerging Market Spread Compression: Is it Real or is it Liquidity?," IMF Working Papers 2008/010, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Peter Rowland & José Luis Torres, 2004. "Determinants of Spread and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt:A Panel Data Study," Borradores de Economia 295, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2008. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1325-1336, December.
    12. Hong G. Min, 1998. "Determinants of emerging market bond spread : do economic fundamentals matter?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1899, The World Bank.
    13. Edwards, Sebastian, 1986. "The pricing of bonds and bank loans in international markets : An empirical analysis of developing countries' foreign borrowing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 565-589, June.
    14. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2006. "The Role of Global Risk Aversion in Explaining Sovereign Spreads," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2006), pages 125-155, August.
    15. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 2000. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging Market Debt?," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 107-134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Sy, Amadou N. R., 2002. "Emerging market bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings: reconciling market views with economic fundamentals," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 380-408, December.
    17. Peter Rowland, 2004. "Determinants of Spread and Credit Ratings and Creditworthiness for Emerging Market Sovereign Debt: A Follow-Up Study Using Pooled Data Analysis," Borradores de Economia 296, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/212, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Rolando Avendaño & Helmut Reisen & Javier Santiso, 2008. "The Macro Management of Commodity Booms: Africa and Latin America's Response to Asian Demand," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 270, OECD Publishing.
    20. Iva Petrova & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 2010/281, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    2. Siklos, Pierre L., 2011. "Emerging market yield spreads: Domestic, external determinants, and volatility spillovers," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 83-100.
    3. Laura Jaramillo & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2013/264, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jaramillo, Laura & Weber, Anke, 2013. "Bond yields in emerging economies: It matters what state you are in," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 169-185.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    6. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    7. Irena Jankovic & Bosko Zivkovic, 2014. "An Analysis Of The Effect Of Currency Mismatch On A Country’S Default Risk," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(201), pages 85-122, April – J.
    8. Pierre L. Siklos, 2008. "Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads: Domestic, Global Factors, and Volatility," Working Papers 182008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2017. "External Debt Management in Pakistan: A Market-Based Assessment," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 25-51, September.
    10. Peter Rowland, 2004. "The Colombian Sovereign Spread and its Determinants," Borradores de Economia 315, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Martín Grandes, 2007. "The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads: Theory and Facts From Latin America," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 44(130), pages 151-181.
    12. Csontó, Balázs, 2014. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads and shifts in global market sentiment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 58-74.
    13. Mr. Fabio Comelli, 2012. "Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Estimation and Back-testing," IMF Working Papers 2012/212, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    15. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    16. Ratha, Dilip & De, Supriyo & Kurlat, Sergio, 2018. "Does governing law affect bond spreads?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 60-78.
    17. Wälti, Sébastien & Weder, Ghislaine, 2009. "Recovering from bond market distress: Good luck and good policy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 36-50, March.
    18. Stephanie Prat, 2007. "The Relevance of Currency Mismatch Indicators: an Analysis Through Determinants of Emerging Market Spreads," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 111, pages 101-122.
    19. Audzeyeva, Alena & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2018. "On the predictability of emerging market sovereign credit spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 140-157.
    20. Martinez, Lisana B. & Terceño, Antonio & Teruel, Mercedes, 2013. "Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-75.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchni:v:16:y:2013:i:1:p:100-121. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fredherick Sanllehi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.