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Regional Crop Modeling: How Future Climate May Impact Crop Yields in Switzerland

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  • Niklaus Lehmann

    (ETH Zürich)

Abstract

Crop yield levels and crop yield variability depend to a high extent on climate conditions. Due to climate change the local crop growth conditions in Switzerland are expected to change. This study addresses the question how weather, soil and management factors influenced mean wheat yield levels in twelve study regions in the Swiss Plateau during the period 1990 – 2008. In addition, we assess potential impacts of climate change on wheat yield levels and yield variability. Applying a multiple regression model based on historical yield, weather, soil and management data in the period 1990 – 2008 at a regional scale, we find clear relations between yield levels and weather as well as management and soil factors. We show that global warming is assumed to decrease wheat yield levels in all study regions between 4-10%. Nevertheless, negative impacts of climate change on wheat production can be minimized or even overcompensated if the CO2 fertilization effect and possible adaptation measures are taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Niklaus Lehmann, 2011. "Regional Crop Modeling: How Future Climate May Impact Crop Yields in Switzerland," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 4(1), pages 269-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:4:y:2011:i:1:p:269-291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Reidsma, Pytrik & Ewert, Frank & Boogaard, Hendrik & Diepen, Kees van, 2009. "Regional crop modelling in Europe: The impact of climatic conditions and farm characteristics on maize yields," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-3), pages 51-60, April.
    2. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
    3. Finger, Robert & El Benni, Nadja, 2011. "Farmers’ Adoption of Extensive Wheat Production - Determinants and Implications," 122nd Seminar, February 17-18, 2011, Ancona, Italy 98979, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Wolfram Schlenker & Michael J. Roberts, 2008. "Estimating the Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields: The Importance of Nonlinear Temperature Effects," NBER Working Papers 13799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Finger, Robert, 2010. "Evidence of slowing yield growth - The example of Swiss cereal yields," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 175-182, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lehmann, Niklaus & Finger, Robert, 2012. "Optimizing whole-farm management considering price and climate risks," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122533, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Finger, Robert, 2011. "Reductions of Agricultural Nitrogen Use Under Consideration of Production and Price Risks," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114356, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(1).
    4. Lehmann, Niklaus & Finger, Robert & Klein, Tommy & Calanca, Pierluigi & Walter, Achim, 2012. "Adapting Towards Climate Change: A Bioeconomic Analysis of Winterwheat and Grain Maize," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126483, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Lehmann, Niklaus & Finger, Robert & Klein, Tommy & Calanca, Pierluigi & Walter, Achim, 2013. "Adapting crop management practices to climate change: Modeling optimal solutions at the field scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 55-65.
    6. El Benni, Nadja & Finger, Robert, 2014. "Where is the risk? Price, yield and cost risk in Swiss crop production," Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, Editions NecPlus, vol. 95(03), pages 299-326, September.
    7. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(01), pages 1-14, February.
    8. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Modeling the sensitivity of agricultural water use to price variability and climate change—An application to Swiss maize production," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 135-143.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wheat; Yield Prediction; Climate Change; Statistical Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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