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Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Produktionsrisiko in der Weizenproduktion - dargestellt am Beispiel dreier bayerischer Standorte

Author

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  • Markus Gandorfer

    (Technische Universität München)

  • K. Christian Kersebaum

    (Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie beschäftigt sich mit den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Produktionsrisiko in der Weizenproduktion an drei ausgewählten bayerischen Standorten. Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen möglicher klimatischer Veränderungen auf Naturalerträge bei verschiedenen Stickstoffintensitäten kommt das Pflanzenwachstumsmodell Hermes zur Anwendung. Die Analysen beziehen sich auf Klimaszenarien des ECHAM5-Modells, basierend auf dem Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenario A1B. Die so geschaffene Datengrundlage dient zur Schätzung jährlicher Stickstoffproduktionsfunktionen. Die ökonomische Bewertung findet schließlich auf Basis der Erwartungswerte und Standardabweichungen der Deckungsbeiträge sowie der Analyse der kumulierten Wahrscheinlichkeitsfunktionen der Deckungsbeiträge statt. Weiterhin werden für die verschiedenen Szenarien Sicherheitsäquivalente und Risikoprämien geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass an den Standorten Metten und Weihenstephan zukünftig mit Einbussen beim mittleren Deckungsbeitrag sowie mit einem wesentlich höheren Produktionsrisiko gerechnet werden muss. Weiterhin kann für diese Standorte gezeigt werden, dass die Zahlungsbereitschaft für Versicherungsinstrumente ansteigen wird. Am Standort Hof zeigt sich dagegen eine wesentlich stabilere Situation, da sich hier höhere Temperaturen durchaus positiv auf die Weizenproduktion auswirken werden. Technischer Fortschritt und höhere CO2-Konzen-tration werden zusätzlich dazu beitragen, dass der Standort Hof vom Klimawandel profitieren könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Gandorfer & K. Christian Kersebaum, 2008. "Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Produktionsrisiko in der Weizenproduktion - dargestellt am Beispiel dreier bayerischer Standorte," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 1(1), pages 161-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:1:y:2008:i:1:p:161-182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Moschini, Giancarlo & Hennessy, David A., 2001. "Uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 88-153, Elsevier.
    2. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 51-64, May.
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    1. Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Klimawandel; Winterweizen; Risikoanalyse; Pflanzenwachstumsmodell;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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