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ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2023: Inflation flaut langsam ab – aber Konjunktur lahmt noch

Author

Listed:
  • Timo Wollmershäuser
  • Stefan Ederer
  • Maximilian Fell
  • Friederike Fourné
  • Max Lay
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Sebastian Link
  • Sascha Möhrle
  • Ann-Christin Rathje
  • Radek Šauer
  • Moritz Schasching
  • Marcus Scheiblecker
  • Lara Zarges

Abstract

Die deutsche Wirtschaft erfuhr im zurückliegenden Winterhalbjahr einen kräftigen Rücksetzer. Als Folge der hohen Inflation schwächte sich die Nachfrage spürbar ab. Erst ab der zweiten Hälfte des laufenden Jahres dürften die Einkommen der privaten Haushalte wieder stärker zulegen als die Preise und der private Konsum an Fahrt aufnehmen. Die Baukonjunktur wird sich im gesamten Prognosezeitraum abkühlen, da der Anstieg der Baupreise nur langsam zurückgeht und die Kreditzinsen hoch bleiben. Das Verarbeitende Gewerbe dürfte dank der hohen Auftragsbestände seine Produktion moderat ausweiten. Zusammengenommen wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in den beiden Quartalen des Sommerhalbjahres 2023 wohl nur schwach um 0,1 % bzw. 0,2 % gegenüber dem Vorquartal expandieren. Ab Ende des Jahres dürfte sich die Konjunktur dann wieder erholen und die Wirtschaft mit kräftigeren Raten zulegen. Alles in allem wird das Bruttoinlandsprodukt in diesem Jahr wohl um 0,4 % zurückgehen und im kommenden Jahr um 1,5 % zunehmen. Die Inflationsrate dürfte von 6,9 % im Jahr 2022 auf 5,8 % im Jahr 2023 und 2,1 % im Jahr 2024 sinken.

Suggested Citation

  • Timo Wollmershäuser & Stefan Ederer & Maximilian Fell & Friederike Fourné & Max Lay & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Sascha Möhrle & Ann-Christin Rathje & Radek Šauer & Moritz Schasching & Marcus S, 2023. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2023: Inflation flaut langsam ab – aber Konjunktur lahmt noch," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 76(Sonderaus), pages 01-53, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:76:y:2023:i:sonderausgabe:p:01-53
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Finanzpolitik; Wirtschaftsprognose; Inflation; Unternehmen; Investitionsentscheidung; Öffentlicher Haushalt; Krieg; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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