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Zur Konstruktion einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen ifo Kapazitätsauslastung

Author

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  • Klaus Wohlrabe
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Die gesamtwirtschaftliche Kapazitätsauslastung ist eine wichtige Größe in der Konjunkturanalyse. Sie beschreibt den Nutzungsgrad der Produktionsanlagen einer Volkswirtschaft. Auch in vielen ökonomischen Theorien spielt die Kapazitätsauslastung einer Volkswirtschaft eine wichtige Rolle. So weisen überausgelastete Kapazitäten auf zunehmenden Investitionsbedarf hin. Schließlich wird die Kapazitätsauslastung bei der Bestimmung der Trendrate des technischen Fortschritts im Rahmen der Potenzialschätzung der EU-Kommission verwendet. Allerdings erhebt die amtliche Statistik keine Daten zur Kapazitätsauslastung. Deshalb wird in der Regel auf Befragungsdaten zurückgegriffen. In Deutschland sind die Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo Instituts dafür maßgeblich. In der praktischen Anwendung wird meist die Kapazitätsauslastung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe verwendet. Wünschenswert wäre aber eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Kapazitätsauslastung, die insbesondere auch den Dienstleistungssektor berücksichtigt. In dem Beitrag wird aus den Konjunkturumfragen des ifo Instituts eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Kapazitätsauslastung konstruiert. Sie deutet darauf hin, dass sich die deutsche Volkswirtschaft seit 2013 in einem Aufschwung befindet, da der Auslastungsgrad stetig zunimmt. Außerdem sind die Produktionskapazitäten mittlerweile überdurchschnittlich ausgelastet.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Zur Konstruktion einer gesamtwirtschaftlichen ifo Kapazitätsauslastung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 26-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:15:p:26-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Robert Lehmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Die Inflation kommt zurück! Immer mehr Firmen in Deutschland wollen ihre Preise anheben," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(05), pages 16-21, March.
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    1. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:04:p:68-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2018. "Investitionen nehmen Fahrt auf," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(10), pages 32-35, May.
    3. Gantert, Konstantin, 2022. "The Impact of Active Aggregate Demand on Utilization-Adjusted TFP," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264103, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    5. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017–2019: Deutsche Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    6. Gantert, Konstantin, 2022. "The impact of active aggregate demand on utilisation-adjusted TFP," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2018 - Wachstum lässt nach: Konjunktur kühlt ab," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 42, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Arno Städtler, 2017. "Leasing und Anlageinvestitionen weiter auf Wachstumskurs – beste Aussichten für 2018," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(23), pages 25-34, December.
    9. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2018. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Kapazitäten zunehmend überausgelastet," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(04), pages 1-68, February.
    10. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2018. "Investitionen und Leasing: Nachlassende Dynamik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(13), pages 69-72, July.
    11. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18 [Towards a Forward-Looking Economic Policy. Annual Report 2017/18]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718, September.
    12. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2019. "Wachstumsverlangsamung bei den Ausrüstungsinvestitionen – geringere Dynamik im Leasinggeschäft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(01), pages 66-69, January.
    13. Arno Städtler, 2018. "Schwächere Autokonjunktur dämpft Leasingwachstum – Anlageinvestitionen weiter auf Wachstumskurs," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(23), pages 36-46, December.
    14. Ademmer, Martin, 2018. "Vergleich der Produktionslückenschätzung mit der anderer Institutionen und alternativer Modelle," Kiel Insight 2018.7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2018. "Investitionen springen an – Leasing boomt," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(01), pages 26-29, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kapazitätsauslastung; Konjunkturforschung; Wirtschaftsindikator; Wirkungsanalyse;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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