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Geldpolitik in den USA - die Fed in der Zinsfalle?

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  • Gerhard Illing

Abstract

Seit dem Einbruch der Aktienmärkte Anfang 2000 hat die Fed durch massive Liquiditätszufuhr versucht, die amerikanische Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren. Ein wesentliches Motiv war die Befürchtung, die amerikanische Wirtschaft könne in eine Liquiditätsfalle geraten. Motiviert von der Überzeugung, die beste Strategie liege darin, rechtzeitig gegenzusteuern, verfolgte die Fed eine aggressive Politik wiederholter Zinssenkungen. Die Geldmarktzinsen sind mit derzeit 1% auf einen seit fast 50 Jahren nicht mehr erreichten Tiefstand gesunken. Mittlerweile werden aber immer mehr Stimmen laut, die davor warnen, eine Überversorgung mit Liquidität durch die Fed trage zu einer Überbewertung von Aktienkursen und Immobilienpreisen bei. Die niedrigen Zinsen ermuntern zu exzessiver Verschuldung und bergen so die Gefahr, dass sich strukturelle Ungleichgewichte aufbauen, die in Zukunft eine umso höhere Krisenanfälligkeit der amerikanischen Wirtschaft zur Folge haben. Prof. Dr. Gerhard Illing, Universität München, zeigt im vorliegenden Aufsatz, dass die stark gestiegene Verschuldung des privaten Sektors in der Tat die amerikanischen Haushalte anfälliger macht für Schwankungen von Zinsen, Einkommen und Immobilienpreisen. Es ist nicht auszuschließen, dass die Fed statt vor einer Liquiditätsfalle nunmehr also vor der umgekehrten Zinsfalle steht - der Gefahr, dass angesichts der Verschuldungsdynamik ein Anstieg der Zinsen gravierende negative Konsumeffekte auslösen könnte und dass somit der Handlungsspielraum für Geldpolitik künftig stark eingeschränkt ist.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Illing, 2004. "Geldpolitik in den USA - die Fed in der Zinsfalle?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(06), pages 31-37, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:57:y:2004:i:06:p:31-37
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heinemann, Frank & Illing, Gerhard, 2002. "Speculative attacks: unique equilibrium and transparency," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 429-450, December.
    2. Sebastian Barnes & Garry Young, 2003. "The rise in US household debt: assessing its causes and sustainability," Bank of England working papers 206, Bank of England.
    3. Illing, Gerhard, 2004. "Nachfragestimulierung statt Strukturreform – mit gebührenfreiem Rezept aus der deutschen Krise?," Munich Reprints in Economics 13069, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    4. Illing, Gerhard, 2004. "Nachfragestimulierung statt Strukturreform: Mit gebührenfreiem Rezept aus der deutschen Krise?," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 84(3), pages 143-149.
    5. Alexander Al-Haschimi & Margaret M. McConnell & Richard Peach, 2003. "After the refinancing boom: will consumers scale back their spending?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Dec).
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    1. Gerhard Illing, 2010. "Geld- und Fiskalpolitik in der Wirtschaftskrise," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(07), pages 10-16, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geldpolitik; Volatilität; Finanzmarkt; Börsenkurs; Immobilienpreis; Zins; Private Verschuldung; Vereinigte Staaten;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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