IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v56y2003i05p20-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

Deutschland verwandelt sich aufgrund der geringen Geburtenrate allmählich in eine »Gerontokratie«. Diese Entwicklung hat fatale Folgen für die Funktionsfähigkeit der staatlichen Sozialsysteme, insbesondere für die Rentenversicherung, denn es fehlen die Beitragszahler, die zukünftig zur Finanzierung der Renten nötig sind. Prof. Dr. Hans-Werner Sinn trägt die wichtigsten Fakten zur demographischen Krise zusammen, zeigt die Folgen dieser Krise, ergründet ihre Ursachen und diskutiert staatliche Maßnahmen, die langfristig wieder eine ausgeglichene Bevölkerungsstruktur herbeiführen könnten.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:05:p:20-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2003_5_4.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
    3. Alessandro Cigno & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2000. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 394, CESifo.
    4. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU enlargement and labour-force migration: Proposals for a gradual convergence of labour markets," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    5. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, May.
    7. Cigno, Alessandro & Camillio Rosati, Furio, 1997. "Rise and fall of the Japanese saving rate: The role of social security and intra-family transfers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 81-92, March.
    8. Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel, 2003. "Die steuerliche Förderung von Familien im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 65-67, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Vera Gács, 2008. "Fertility and prosperity : links between demography and economic growth," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 42, September.
    2. Bergs Christian & Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas & Schaefer Thilo, 2007. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung: Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Barbara Henman, 2004. "Zu den ökonomischen Zusammenhängen zwischen Renten-, Familien- und Bildungspolitik – Ein Plädoyer für die Aufwertung der Erziehungsrente je Kind," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2004, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    4. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, February.
    5. Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2003. "Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung Sachsens in der laufenden und den nächsten Dekaden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 9-26, June.
    6. Maiterth, Ralf, 2005. "Familienpolitik und deutsches Einkommensteuerrecht: empirische Ergebnisse und familienpolitische Schlussfolgerungen," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 7, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Das demographische Defizit – die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und die Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
    8. Egger, Peter H. & Radulescu, Doina M., 2012. "Family policy and the number of children: Evidence from a natural experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 524-539.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Das demographische Defizit – die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und die Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2005. "Europe's Demographic Deficit," Munich Reprints in Economics 934, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C. & Tzannatos, Zafiris, 2002. "Child labor handbook," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 25507, The World Bank.
    4. Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Vera Gács, 2008. "Fertility and prosperity : links between demography and economic growth," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 42, September.
    5. Sefa Awaworyi & Siew Ling Yew, 2014. "Government Transfers and Growth: Is there Evidence of Genuine Effect?," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
    7. Cigno, A., 2016. "Conflict and Cooperation Within the Family, and Between the State and the Family, in the Provision of Old-Age Security," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-660, Elsevier.
    8. Alessandro Cigno & Mizuki Komura & Annalisa Luporini, 2017. "Self-enforcing family rules, marriage and the (non)neutrality of public intervention," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 805-834, July.
    9. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2007. "Social Security and Demographic Trends: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(1), pages 55-77, January.
    10. Vincenzo Galasso & Roberta Gatti & Paola Profeta, 2009. "Investing for the old age: pensions, children and savings," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(4), pages 538-559, August.
    11. GAGGERMEIER Christian & LUCKE Bernd, 2010. "Pension Systems and Population Growth: An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Birth Rates," EcoMod2003 330700056, EcoMod.
    12. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2010. "Family Policies And The Optimal Population Growth Rate: Closed And Small Open Economies," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 96-123, February.
    13. Alessandro Cigno & Gianna Giannelli & Furio Rosati & Daniela Vuri, 2006. "Is there such a thing as a family constitution? A test based on credit rationing," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 183-204, September.
    14. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chun-Ping Chang, 2006. "Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 303-320.
    15. Miller, Stephen M. & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2015. "Demographic transition and economic welfare: The role of in-cash and in-kind transfers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-92.
    16. Robert Fenge & Volker Meier, 2005. "Pensions and fertility incentives," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(1), pages 28-48, February.
    17. Zhao Kai, 2011. "Social Security, Differential Fertility, and the Dynamics of the Earnings Distribution," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, August.
    18. Richter, Wolfram F., 2002. "Social Security and Taxation of Labour Subject to Subsidiarity and Freedom of Movement," IZA Discussion Papers 490, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Axel Börsch‐Supan, 2000. "Was lehrt uns die Empirie in Sachen Rentenreform?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(4), pages 431-451, November.
    20. Alessandro Cigno, 2007. "Low fertility in Europe: Is the pension system the victim or the culprit? Introduction by Alessandro Cigno," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 8(3), pages 37-42, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geburtenrate; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Rentenfinanzierung; Alternde Bevölkerung; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:05:p:20-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.