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Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen

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  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

Deutschland verwandelt sich aufgrund der geringen Geburtenrate allmählich in eine »Gerontokratie«. Diese Entwicklung hat fatale Folgen für die Funktionsfähigkeit der staatlichen Sozialsysteme, insbesondere für die Rentenversicherung, denn es fehlen die Beitragszahler, die zukünftig zur Finanzierung der Renten nötig sind. Prof. Dr. Hans-Werner Sinn trägt die wichtigsten Fakten zur demographischen Krise zusammen, zeigt die Folgen dieser Krise, ergründet ihre Ursachen und diskutiert staatliche Maßnahmen, die langfristig wieder eine ausgeglichene Bevölkerungsstruktur herbeiführen könnten.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn, 2003. "Das demographische Defizit - die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und ihre Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 20-36, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:05:p:20-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alessandro Cigno & Luca Casolaro & Furio C. Rosati, 2000. "The Role of Social Security in Household Decisions: Var Estimates of Saving and Fertility Behaviour in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 394, CESifo.
    2. Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003. "Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
    3. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU enlargement and labour-force migration: Proposals for a gradual convergence of labour markets," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    4. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel, 2003. "Die steuerliche Förderung von Familien im internationalen Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(05), pages 65-67, March.
    6. Cigno, Alessandro & Rosati, Furio C., 1996. "Jointly determined saving and fertility behaviour: Theory, and estimates for Germany, Italy, UK and USA," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1589, November.
    7. Cigno, Alessandro & Camillio Rosati, Furio, 1997. "Rise and fall of the Japanese saving rate: The role of social security and intra-family transfers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 81-92, March.
    8. Hans-Werner Sinn & Martin Werding, 2001. "Zuwanderung nach der EU-Osterweiterung: Wo liegen die Probleme?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(08), pages 18-27, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Vera Gács, 2008. "Fertility and prosperity : links between demography and economic growth," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 42.
    2. Bergs Christian & Fuest Clemens & Peichl Andreas & Schaefer Thilo, 2007. "Reformoptionen der Familienbesteuerung: Aufkommens-, Verteilungs- und Arbeitsangebotseffekte," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 58(1), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Barbara Henman, 2004. "Zu den ökonomischen Zusammenhängen zwischen Renten-, Familien- und Bildungspolitik – Ein Plädoyer für die Aufwertung der Erziehungsrente je Kind," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 03/2004, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    4. Kai A. Konrad & Wolfram F. Richter, 2005. "Zur Berücksichtigung von Kindern bei umlagefinanzierter Alterssicherung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(1), pages 115-130, February.
    5. Wolfgang Gerstenberger, 2003. "Wirtschafts- und Arbeitsmarktentwicklung Sachsens in der laufenden und den nächsten Dekaden," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(05), pages 9-26, June.
    6. Maiterth, Ralf, 2005. "Familienpolitik und deutsches Einkommensteuerrecht: empirische Ergebnisse und familienpolitische Schlussfolgerungen," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 7, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    7. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Das demographische Defizit – die Fakten, die Folgen, die Ursachen und die Politikimplikationen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(21), pages 03-23, November.
    8. Egger, Peter H. & Radulescu, Doina M., 2012. "Family policy and the number of children: Evidence from a natural experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 524-539.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geburtenrate; Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung; Rentenfinanzierung; Alternde Bevölkerung; Bevölkerungsstruktur; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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