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Die D-Mark in Osteuropa, das Schwarzgeld und der Euro: Zur Größe des Effektes

Author

Listed:
  • Hans Werner Sinn
  • Frank Westermann

Abstract

Flüchtendes Schwarzgeld sowie aus Osteuropa und der Türkei zurückdrängende DM-Bestände können den Kursverfall des Euro maßgeblich erklären: Das von Hans-Werner Sinn und Frank Westermann formulierte Portfolio-Balance Modell unterscheidet nämlich im Gegensatz zu anderen Modellen dieser Art zwischen Bargeld, Wertpapieren und Aktien im internationalen Portfolio der Kapitalanleger. Es zeigt, dass der Wechselkurs nur von der Bestandsnachfrage nach Geld im engeren Sinne, also Ml oder M0, und nicht etwa M3 oder anderen Aggregaten mit zinstragenden Titeln abhängt. Berechungen ergeben, dass von 1997 bis 2000 fast 50 Mrd. Euro aus Osteuropa, der Türkei und aus »schwarzen Taschen« an die Zentralbanken der elf Euro-Länder zurückgeflossen sein könnten. Überträgt man die Ergebnisse einer amerikanischen Untersuchung, die zeigen, dass jede Milliarde zusätzlicher sterilisierter Dollar-Geldnachfrage den Dollarkurs um einen halben Cent erhöht, auf den Eurokurs, so lassen sich damit 25 Cent der insgesamt 34 Cent, um die der Euro im Zeitraum 1997-2000 abwertete, erklären. Der Abwertungsdruck hält wahrscheinlich noch bis Ende des Jahres an. Nach der physischen Einführung des Euro im Januar und Februar des nächsten Jahres wird dieser Druck indes allmählich verschwinden.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Die D-Mark in Osteuropa, das Schwarzgeld und der Euro: Zur Größe des Effektes," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(19), pages 18-23, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:54:y:2001:i:19:p:18-23
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Frank Westermann, 2001. "Why Has the Euro Been Falling?," CESifo Working Paper Series 493, CESifo.
    2. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Helmut Stix, 2001. "Survey Results about Foreign Currency Holdings in Five Central and Eastern European Countries," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 2(03), pages 41-48, February.
    4. Seitz, Franz, 1995. "Der DM-Umlauf im Ausland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1995,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
    6. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 1996. "International Implications of German Unification," CEPR Discussion Papers 1508, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2001. "Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention," NBER Working Papers 8356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Börsennotierung; Wechselkurs; Geldnachfrage; Euro; D-Mark; Abwertung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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