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Prognosen des Wirtschaftswachstums der deutschen Bundesländer unter Echtzeitbedingungen

Author

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  • Robert Lehmann

Abstract

Die Beurteilung der Prognosegüte von diversen Konjunkturindikatoren und Prognosemodellen für die praktische Prognosearbeit sollte immer unter realistischen Bedingungen erfolgen. Hierfür benötigt es insbesondere Echtzeitdaten für die zu prognostizierenden Größen wie dem preisbereinigten Bruttoinlandsprodukt einer Region. Echtzeitdaten für die Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen der Länder sind jedoch derzeit nicht verfügbar. Der vorliegende Artikel stellt einen neuen Echtzeitdatensatz vor und führt ein Prognoseexperiment für das Wirtschaftswachstum aller 16 Bundesländer simultan durch. Das hier verwendete Prognosemodell liefert recht treffsichere Vorhersagen und könnte damit auch in der praktischen Prognosearbeit zur Anwendung kommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann, 2024. "Prognosen des Wirtschaftswachstums der deutschen Bundesländer unter Echtzeitbedingungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(04), pages 03-07, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:31:y:2024:i:04:p:03-07
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Wirtschaftswachstum; Datenerhebung; Erhebungstechnik; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General

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