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Sovereign Debt Crises in Latin America: A Market Pressure Approach

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  • Tjeerd M. Boonman
  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs
  • Gerard H. Kuper

Abstract

We construct a continuous sovereign debt crisis index for four large Latin American countries for the period 1870−2012. To obtain the optimal set of indicators and the optimal value of the threshold for dating crises we apply the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Our sovereign debt crisis index is a weighted average of three indicators: the debt-to-GDP ratio, the external interest rate spread, and the exports-to-imports ratio. The continuous index allows a more advanced analysis of sovereign debt crises as illustrated with an investigation of the relationship between sovereign debt crises and business cycles in Latin America.

Suggested Citation

  • Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Crises in Latin America: A Market Pressure Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(S6), pages 80-93, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:51:y:2015:i:s6:p:s80-s93
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1080558
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Li & Xiangyu Ge & Wei Fan & Hao Zheng, 2021. "Research on Spatial Correlation Characteristics and Their Spatial Spillover Effect of Local Government Debt Risks in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-32, March.
    2. Rani Wijayanti & Sagita Rachmanira, 2020. "Early Warning System for Government Debt Crisis in Developing Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 103-124.

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